Ask HN: What ever happened to probabilistic thinking?

I thought probabilistic thinking was the way programmers and rational people in the tech & science world used.

Lately I see b&w messaging like:

"We will never cure aging". "We will never reach AGI in our lifetimes". "AI has 0% of catastrophic risk - Lecunn". Etc.

How can people in tech think in absolutes? Why not think "hey, maybe there is 10% we cure aging or 10% chance we all die and these are super important"? After all isn't it obvious to everybody that probability * magnitute = impact?

Said more clearly so we don't get into a discussion about correctness of percentages:

Possible and Impossible are hugely different.