Tesla's Robotaxi Dream is facing Reality

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-06-27/tesla-s-800-billion-robotaxi-dream-is-finally-facing-reality

by remus • 1 year ago

6 1 1 year ago

nabla9• 1 year ago

This is a great do or die moment. No more belief in the future.

On generous assumptions, Tesla’s core EV business, generating 75% of gross profit but with falling sales, might be worth roughly $50 per share, only 15% of the current price.
Much of the remainder relates to expectations around self driving. RBC Capital, for example, ascribes 59% of its price target, or $181 per share, to robotaxis and a further $53 to monetizing Full Self Driving technology. Combined, that is a cool $815 billion based on double-digit multiples ascribed to modeled revenue — not earnings — 10 to 15 years from now because, after all, it relates to businesses that barely make money today.

...

It is obvious that, having mocked rival Waymo LLC’s cautious, city-by-city approach, Tesla is now emulating that as it begins its own operation. As of writing this, there is only one reported incident of a “safety concern” pertaining to a Tesla robotaxi on the City of Austin’s online dashboard. But federal regulators are already looking into instances where Tesla robotaxis appeared to violate traffic laws, captured on video.

...

Meanwhile, the longer Tesla takes, the more time other competitors, like Amazon.com Inc.’s Zoox, have to establish themselves. In a market this new and dynamic, the range of potential outcomes is dizzying. A recent attempt by analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., modeling various fleet sizes and margins on a hypothetical Tesla robotaxi fleet in 2040, spat out values from $2.50 per share up to $81.75. Place your bets.

Tesla's Robotaxi Dream is facing Reality

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