Sea level rise is gonna get a whole lot realer

https://greenash.net.au/thoughts/2025/01/sea-level-rise-is-gonna-get-a-whole-lot-realer/

by jaza • 2 years ago

28 15 2 years ago

greenash.net.au

arcbyte2• 2 years ago

I don't get it.

Hes saying the sea has risen and the people who say it hasn't are wrong. Then he says the sea hasn't risen and those people are actually right. Then he says the sea is gonna rise a lot more than it hasn't.

There no point here that i can find.

EdwardCoffin• 2 years ago

Then he says the sea hasn't risen and those people are actually right

You must be thinking of the bit where he says To be fair to those folks, it's true that – as they claim – the water level of various landmarks around the world, such as the Statue of Liberty, Plymouth Rock, and (in my own stomping ground of Sydney Harbour) Fort Denison, has not "visibly" risen since they were erected. but didn't notice the visibly.

Then he says the sea is gonna rise a lot more than it hasn't.

I don't understand what you mean by this.

JohnBrookz• 2 years ago

The article was pretty clear and cohesive on its messaging. I’m not sure what you’re confused about.

sealeck• 2 years ago

I think this is mostly addressed in the article

Hes saying the sea has risen and the people who say it hasn't are wrong.

Quoting from the webpage

> To be fair to those folks, it's true that – as they claim – the water level of various landmarks around the world... has not "visibly" risen since they were erected... The fact... is that the global average sea level has risen by 15-25cm (6-10") since 1900.

That is – there has been some sea level rise, but not that much (yet) and therefore people may not have noticed it.

Venturing beyond the first paragraph, the main point seems to be this paragraph (emphasis mine)

> *The thing is, sea level rise lags behind global warming by several decades.* So (if you'll excuse my hitting-rather-close-to-home choice of pun), what we've seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg. We've already locked in another 10-25cm (4-10") of sea level rise between now and 2050. And we're currently looking at a minimum 28-61cm (11-24") of sea level rise between now and 2100, and a minimum 40-95cm (16-38") of sea level rise between now and 2200.

rcxdude• 2 years ago

The main point is that sea level rise is a slow process, and lags the actual warming substantially, so even though the sea level rise hasn't been huge so far, it's going to keep going, even if carbon emissions stop (a lot of the confused messaging is people mixing up projections that are a hundred years out and thinking they were supposed to have already happened).

UniverseHacker• 2 years ago

I think what makes it hard for people to notice is that sea level rise thus far is about an order of magnitude less than tidal range. Same with climate change- it’s warmer on average but the difference is mostly unnoticeable compared to natural day to day and seasonal weather changes. In both cases the extreme highs are enough higher to cause a real a problem for only a very small number of people thus far.

devops99• 2 years ago

  Pay more taxes to change the weather.

akaru• 2 years ago

OK, glad to do so if given the option. Is this an offer? Are you campaigning?

tiahura• 2 years ago

Are there any landmarks with then and now photos that actually show sea level rise over the last 100 years?

jaza3• 2 years ago

Author here. No, unfortunately there aren't any such photos that I know of, and that's because even though sea level rise to date is verifiable via reliable measurements, in most of the world the sea level hasn't risen enough to be discernible to the human eye.

In the article, I linked to a number of fact checks of "then and now" photos, that claim to be evidence that sea level rise isn't real, and that have been determined to be false claims.

blinkymach12• 2 years ago

I'm very much an environmentalist and am very concerned about climate change, and I feel like this article completely put me at ease about sea level rise. I suspect this was the opposite of the intent.

I feel like in comparison to intensified weather phenomenon and especially heat waves, sea level rise sound very manageable.

jaza3• 2 years ago

Author here. That was definitely not my intent! How can a sea level rise of potentially 1.6 metres (approx 5 feet) within the next 75 years, possibly put you at ease, or sound "very manageable"?!

nzentzis• 2 years ago

While I can’t speak for GP, I had a similar reaction - though admittedly I wouldn’t describe it as “relieved,” more of an “okay, good to know this isn’t anywhere near the top of the priority list” feeling.

Essentially, in comparison to the other potential/likely effects of climate change I’m aware of (mass deaths of pollinators causing a collapse of the global food infrastructure, large percentages of the world’s arable land becoming non-viable leading to mass famine, heat waves bringing lethal wet-bulb temperatures to large populated areas, collapse of the AMOC, increased wars and global conflict due to space pressure, large-scale droughts and water scarcity, etc) it just doesn’t seem that bad. It’s awful and terrifying, to be clear, but it doesn’t really compare to some of the other effects we’re going to be dealing with over the same timeframe.

arcbyte2• 2 years ago

Logically, if sea level rise somewhere of 5-9" has resulted in imperceptible rise anywhere we care enough about to have pictures of (zero sea level rise on landmarks), then extrapolated that out to the next 100 years expected rise of 15" more, i expect there to be again almost imperceptible rise in the sea anywhere we care about.

Sea level rise is gonna get a whole lot realer

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