The Deep and Enduring History of Universal Basic Income

https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/the-deep-and-enduring-history-of-universal-basic-income/

by jethronethro • 2 years ago

26 38 2 years ago

thereader.mitpress.mit.edu

dwallin• 2 years ago

I think the article gets it wrong when it says nationalism is the biggest issue the UBI movement currently faces. Our current waves of nationalism have populist roots, and therefore is not inherently incompatible with UBI policies. However, as stated in the article, the current UBI movement is generally left-of-center; and there is a lot of reactionary opposition (atleast in the USA) to anything that comes from the other side.

I think the bigger issue is that there is a common, albeit misguided notion that UBI would create inflationary pressure. This fear was made worse by the current inflationary environment. Covid relief was made the boogeyman for inflation out of political expediency.

On the plus side, the advancement of AI, and the threat of widespread job loss creates a positive talking point that can possibly help counteract that.

bequanna6• 2 years ago

I think the bigger issue is that there is a common, albeit misguided notion that UBI would create inflationary pressure.

Well, because it is perfectly intuitive to think it will cause inflation: The Fed printing money to fund Government deficit spending absolutely increases inflation. UBI is additional Government spending. Additionally, reducing the supply of labor increases the cost of labor, which causes inflation.

I think the onus is the proponents of UBI to somehow prove that if this is done at scale it will NOT cause inflation.

On the plus side, the advancement of AI, and the threat of widespread job loss creates a positive talking point that can possibly help counteract that.

Academics have been making these doomsday "automation will cause labor surplus" predictions since forever. When exactly can we expect them to materialize? I'd love some cheaper labor so I can build an affordable home.

CrackerNews• 2 years ago

I think if you follow where the money goes, that will be whether UBI causes inflation or not. In the best case, it results in a virtuous cycle where growth is created and sustained. In the worst case, it further inflates the value of low supply goods. This will most likely be up to market conditions along with business models/strategies and productive capabilities of various industries and marketplaces and how they will weigh out.

In the example of housing however, I don't think UBI will help because the business model is dependent on inflating prices of homes as investment vehicles. The price must go up one way or another. What actually bring home prices down would be something like a market crash where investment expectations are muted.

Cheaper labor however comes from offshore countries that have a lower standard of living. If average wages go up, then domestic workers will expect that as a baseline. A business can pay above the average for above average workers, and vice versa. The expectation of hiring cheaper immigrant labor is getting the same level of expertise for cheaper. This does not always go to plan, which is why there is still some demand for domestic workers and their expertise. Automation may have a similar effect but without the same virtuous cycle to offshore countries as before. (Not to mention that the difference between revenue and cheaper labor cost is incentivized to be kept as business profits, which doesn't mean that prices go down since demand and supply now expects higher prices as the market baseline.)

jiggawatts6• 2 years ago

Who said anything about “printing” money!?

In all serious contexts — not kids arguing on Reddit — the concept of UBI is just an adjustment of tax brackets such that people below a certain threshold pay negative tax. This is offset by higher taxes in the super rich.

It’s basically saying that Bezos does not work one million times harder than the staff working in his warehouses. Staff that are literally starving in many cases.

JellyBeanThief• 2 years ago

Academics have been making these doomsday "automation will cause labor surplus" predictions since forever. When exactly can we expect them to materialize?

Make a list of jobs you think are very little benefit, no benefit, or detriment to society. Whatever value function you want. Maybe you hate advertisers, maybe you like advertisers. Reality television. Loan sharks. Health insurance. Lawyers. Fast food. Facebook. Everybody's got 'em, even if they don't agree.

Call these workers (whoever you decide they are) the fakeloaders. They're doing things that don't need to be done, but which the fakeloaders need to do in order to have money in order to buy things.

How big is the fake load? Sum the hours worked by fakeloaders, and the money they draw from the rest of the economy. Write it all off as wasted. That time could have been spent by those workers doing something more beneficial, or it could have been distributed over everyone to just rest and live in. That money expressed demand for important things like food, housing, or medicine but was earned by people who ultimately didn't do any work that actually produced those things or anything else that really improved life.

Now, enter some new technology that saves labor and costs people their jobs. Some number of those people may move on to other beneficial things. But some number are going to become fakeloaders. Maybe the fake load they do is easily-trained, low-paying work. Maybe it's credential- or network-demanding, high-paying work.

The key questions are: 1) Is the fake load growing and, if it is, 2) is that growth accelerating or jerking (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerk_(physics)) too fast?

MichaelRo• 2 years ago

> small-scale hunter-gatherer or agrarian communities

The key is "small-scale". On the other hand humans are closing 10 billion, sorry but I don't see how such a number of people can live on the dole.

NemoNobody• 2 years ago

Income doesn't have to start at zero.

What an excellent way of phrasing it.

readyman2• 2 years ago

UBI is an obvious scam. It's always better to decrease labor time evenly across all workers while paying the same or higher wages.

wenebego2• 2 years ago

Imagine the case if labor time is reduced to 0, because its all been automated away. Thats UBI

readyman2• 2 years ago

Both impossible and stupid.

harvey9• 2 years ago

I see it as 'I can try this business idea, secure in the knowledge that if it fails I won't go hungry'. Even in the post scarcity Federation in Star Trek people want to do work that is both fulfilling and valuable.

piloto_ciego• 2 years ago

We have UBI here in Alaska, it’s not enough to live off of, but yah, it’s not a scam at all. UBI works - see the PFD.

The Deep and Enduring History of Universal Basic Income

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