A math equation that predicts the end of humanity

https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/2019/6/28/18760585/doomsday-argument-calculation-prediction-j-richard-gott

by RafelMri • 2 years ago

7 5 2 years ago

Qem• 2 years ago

The most mind-boggling controversy in the contemporary philosophy of science is the “doomsday argument,” a claim that a mathematical formula can predict how long the human race will survive. It gives us even odds that our species will meet its end within the next 760 years.

Coincidentally, 760 years is approximately the time required for a fertility rate of 1 to bring down the world population from 8 billion to less than ten, assuming one generation to be about 25 years, as 8e9*(1/2)^(760/25)~=5.6

BinRoo• 2 years ago

I don't follow. "The number of future births will be less than the number of past births" could occur at any moment, not necessarily at the 50% mark of humanity's timeline.

blamestross• 2 years ago

Sampling bais always makes idealized frequentist statistics fail.

eynsham• 2 years ago

I don’t see a single equation in this article on a putative ‘math equation’.

gautamcgoel• 2 years ago

These ideas play a central role in the sci-fi novel Manifold Time. Highly recommend!

A math equation that predicts the end of humanity

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