ChatGPT Isn't Coming for Your Coding Job

https://www.wired.com/story/chatgpt-coding-software-crisis/

by clockworksoul • 3 years ago

49 58 3 years ago

mkmk• 3 years ago

Entirely misses the point. The right frame for this is “AI wont take your job, but humans with ai will” [0]

There are countless examples of people up-skilling using AI. Today, that might threaten the bottom of the market. Soon, it will put everyone’s jobs at risk for disruption.

[0] https://hbr.org/2023/08/ai-wont-replace-humans-but-humans-wi...

happytiger• 3 years ago

This is the point. You can’t draw a straight line into the future and say, “the impact of x will be y.”

1) Humans are terrible predictors of the future.

2) Linear progression isn’t really a thing in multi step, complex technology progressions

The impact of the steam engine was nuclear weapons. Direct line. Predictable?

Spot on analysis.

asfginoinio• 3 years ago

I just don't buy it. This is the classic non-programmer's view of programming productivity. It is really easy to dash off hundreds of lines a day. Doing so feels great, but is in fact massively counterproductive. The hard work of software development benefits from deep thought, not shallow. Ten lines of well-tested, peer-reviewed code are more valuable than ten thousand lines of crud. Any time a programmer complains something will slow down their work, that's a point in its favor.

"AI"-based static analysis tools might be valuable. If I ever see "AI"-based code generation on a project I run before I get stuck cleaning up the mess.

tredre3• 3 years ago

Conversely I think you express the view of a non-ai-assisted programmer.

LLMs don't just dash out hundreds of lines of code. They can take a concept and break it down into concrete steps or even a fully planned architecture for you.

That's literally the hard work you describe. AI can do it beautifully, it just needs a human capable of critical thought to steer it (human understanding of the subject at hand is merely a bonus, not a requirement).

malux852• 3 years ago

I get what you're saying about 10 lines of well-tested vs 10,000 lines of crud, but this hyperbole is also a false dichotomy.

GPT-4 and Copilot absolutly makes me more productive as a programmer, wiring all the tests, getting maybe 80% of them right and then I fix them up. I am not producing 10,000 lines of crud, but I AM producing 1000 lines of test-covered code, I'm doing the hard bits, and the AIs are doing the menial parts.

I am by far the most productive programmer on the team however you measure it (we have about 60 different metrics available to management) and a large part of this is be having enough energy to always be attacking the hard problems, because I am not wasting mind power and time writing the trivial bits that can be automated.

Does it get it right every time? Nope. Does it make hilariously wrong mistakes? Yep, about once or twice a day! Is it worth it? Absolutly.

currymj• 3 years ago

starting with FORTRAN the last 70 years have involved continual improvements to make programming faster, easier, higher-level, easier to learn, and more accessible; and each one of these has just made programming an even more useful and important skill. I don't currently see any reason why ChatGPT should be any different.

IshKebab4• 3 years ago

...yet.

Of course ChatGPT isn't going to replace any programmers now. Is anyone that has actually tried it seriously worried about that?

The reason people are worried is because it provides strong evidence that AGI might actually be possible within a few decades. Before that we really had no idea.

But it clearly isn't there yet.

regularjack• 3 years ago

There's a long way to go from next-word-predicter to AGI. And that road might not ever end up in AGI.

IshKebab4• 3 years ago

next-word-predicter

How tediously derisive. Part of the reason ChatGPT is seminal is that it shows that "next word predictor" can display extremely sophisticated capabilities; more than the sum of its parts. It might not end up in AGI but it's clearly a huge step closer - taking us from "will it every happen?" to "it actually might happen!".

pixl973• 3 years ago

Conversely, AI will likely call you a 'next-meal-predictor' sooner than later.

janosdebugs• 3 years ago

About 10% of the work of a developer is translating specs into code. 90% is trying to make sense of what passes as "specs" these days.

olavgg• 3 years ago

I'm actually developing a product that writes database queries, SQL and Cypher with natural language. ChatGPT makes "coding" more accessible for everyone. It will not replace real software developers, but it will help a big number of people with zero coding skills to perform simple data manipulation and data extraction tasks.

fullstackchris3• 3 years ago

The challenge here is that regardless of how simple the input language can be, you'll still need the knowledge as a user to know what to ask in the first place! For example, I've worked with product managers (these "zero coding skills" folks you mention) who didnt even understand the basic concepts of HTTP - so how can we expect them, armed only with an LLM, no matter how powerful, to ask the right questions and actually build something useful, let alone entire applications. (not insinuating this was your meaning, but this is what i see repeated in many places). I think as far as what is useful to no code folks is a WYSIWYG editor, and even those always suffer pitfalls at somepoint, needing custom development somewhere evantually.

ilaksh6• 3 years ago

Languages like SQL are probably the killer app for this generation of LLMs like GPT 3.5 and 4. It can work very well, especially if you give it some application specific hints.

Probably because the designers of SQL got us as far along towards natural language as they could, and LLMs were built for translation.

honkycat2• 3 years ago

I JUST got laid off, more than 10 years of experience, have been busy the whole time so i have good chops and a great resume.

I'm kinda sick of the boom and bust and grind. Don't really know where to go next, I don't see that many alternative well-paying jobs out there.

If we lose the developer career path, what the hell is left?

codeTired• 3 years ago

I mean everything goes through boom and bust cycles. If you want a relatively safe job think about becoming a public servant. However, dev jobs are some of the best jobs in the world, as it allows one to work in many sectors and the pay is generally very good.

I invest and save aggressively. So a bust cycle lasting a few years won’t matter to me.

Additionally, keep life expanses reasonable and not getting sucked into consumerism keeps the cost of living low.

honkycat2• 3 years ago

Same I can float my mortgage for literally years

ilaksh6• 3 years ago

I am hoping to leverage AI to create my own businesses. Starting with something focused on generating simple websites or web applications.

barrysteve• 3 years ago

Farming.

(a man of your talents?)

The awkward truth is that every other job you can take will appear inefficient. After some time you'll crave a computer to come do aspects of that job too... and hey presto, you're back on a client, coding up some automation feature.

Your subtle observations about inventory management, scheduling and mathematical errors in planning, bugged management so much they took you off 'normal work'. Then you're tasked with automating easy coding tasks that are hard because of outdated company structures, with limited oversight and no fellow bro-grammers to get you out of a jam.

If you do manage to 'lose' a programming job, please tell me how. This career is a one-way ticket to infinity, because you know.

weatherlite5• 3 years ago

Don't really know where to go next, I don't see that many alternative well-paying jobs out there.

Forget well-paying, I haven no idea what I CAN do that's not programming. Sure I can try working as a teacher or as a nurse - but that's all it will be - trying. I might despair, burn out etc. Even people who are on paper better suited to these jobs burn out all the time. I'm 39 so it's not going to be an easy switch. I hope we all have 5-10 more years in the industry, that's enough time to save enough money.

akomtu• 3 years ago

GPT4-5 will change the nature of the job: instead of digging thru a pile of smelly code to find the right place to fix something, you'll ask GPT for a list of suggestions, and the top suggestion will be usually correct. However if it generates an arcane script to update your database, you can't trust it and can't verify the script without assistance from an expensive software dev. There is some similarities with lawyers: gpt4 can write a lengthy contract for a few cents, but you still need to pay a lawyer thousands of dollars to verify it.

However, when gpt gets fluent in formal logic, the number of knowledge workers needed to run a business will shrink tenfold at least.

weatherlite5• 3 years ago

However, when gpt gets fluent in formal logic, the number of knowledge workers needed to run a business will shrink tenfold at least.

So what's left of the middle class - we all either go into the trades or to government ?

fullstackchris3• 3 years ago

This article is perfect. Basically it sums up to, "whats more likely, that every job disappears? (never happened in human history) or we get yet another expansion of products and innovations (always happens)?"

"but this time is different" - I still have not seen a single example that shows otherwise.

don't overthink it

hackinthebochs• 3 years ago

Historically, efficiency increases from technology were driven by innovation from narrow technology or mechanisms that brought a decrease in the costs of transactions. This saw an explosion of the space of viable economic activity and with it new classes of jobs and a widespread growth in prosperity. Productivity and wages largely remained coupled up until recent decades. Modern automation has seen productivity and wages begin to decouple. Decoupling will only accelerate as the use of AI proliferates.

This time is different because AI has the potential to have a similar impact on efficiency across all work. In the past, efficiency gains created totally new spaces of economic activity in which the innovation could not further impact. But AI is a ubiquitous force multiplier, there is no productive human activity that AI can't disrupt. There is no analogous new space of economic activity that humanity as a whole can move to in order to stay relevant to the world's economic activity.

pixl973• 3 years ago

This is reductionist to the point of absurdity.

Remember the Luddites. Yea, that group considered to be 'anti-technology', except that isn't what happened. At the time they were kicked to the street to starve with nowhere to live.

AI does not have to replace every job to completely and totally disrupt society in ways like leading to world wars, or the rise again of fascist governments. Blind faith that the magic hand of technology always makes things better is just a form of historical ignorance of all the social changes that had to occur with it to ensure that we were not enslaved by those that owned technology.

fullstackchris3• 3 years ago

oh give me a break, people were saying the same thing about cRyPto and all we got were stupid ape pictures in the end

naveen99• 3 years ago

We already know there are infinite primes. there isn’t anything special about humans. Life will continue as carbon or silicon.

ilaksh6• 3 years ago

https://archive.ph/1TcAA

ilaksh6• 3 years ago

Actually, Fortran and COBOL _did_ replace programmers, as far as I know. It was largely women at the beginning because it was quite tedious and the first computer languages were assembly or machine code. They were so far from the application or mathematical language and often had to be programmed in difficult processes like sometimes literally flipping switches, or input systems that were slow to set up.

But then came high level assembly languages and even higher level application languages. And easier to use input systems. Programmer used to literally be the person either translating some finished math into assembly language or actually encoding code into punch cards or both.

All of that went away with better tools. So when this article claims that this stuff didn't take jobs, they are wrong. It literally did.

The other thing the article gets wrong is that people are concerned that ChatGPT and the current generation of LLMs will literally replace software developers today in equivalent fully general capacity. No one thinks that. No one whatsoever.

What is obvious, however, is that it is possible to use something like the existing ChatGPT API and models to do certain simple specific programming tasks. That means that _some_ things you might have previously hired a programmer for can now be done automatically.

The applications that I have got working are things like creating a chat interface for querying a specific database, where the system generates the SQL and then formats or summarizes the output. Or creating a web page from a template with just a little bit of custom functionality.

So the current version of GPT cannot replace the actual abilities of a programmer, but these AI-powered app or analysis generator are definitely chipping away at the amount of basic but custom tasks that you need to hire a programmer for.

The main concept though which the author seems to not get is that these systems will continue to improve year in and year out. And the pace we are on, even assuming it slows down a bit, means that we can expect the complexity of programming tasks that LLMs can handle to continue to improve.

There is no reason to believe that it won't pretty shortly end up being better than any human. Especially when you can narrow down the task to a specific popular type of application.

As soon as I saw ChatGPT last year, I realized that this was eventually going to impact jobs for software development. To what degree and how soon was not determined, but it is obvious it will have a very large impact at some point.

So within two days I started working on my own code generation startup leveraging GPT. Within 1-3 years I expect the competition in this area will be very intense. Within five years it will be very obviously competing directly with freelance programmers for small contracts. You will literally see articles like "Use this ChatGPT Plugin instead of spending $10000 on a Freelance Programmer" and it will work.

Actually right now I know there is someone who always advertises on HN for building a GPT-powered chatbot for $10000. There are websites that will make the same thing for under $100 per month. At least one that can generate code for custom chatbots. And I am planning to add chatbot capability to my platform which my code generating AI system can easily hook into. So my system will be able to build custom chatbots also within a few months. As a ChatGPT plugin with hosting for $15/month. Directly competing with that guy charging $10000.

larsonnn2• 3 years ago

Every advancement that simplifies coding potentially displaces a job. If tools like GPT-4 amplify my efficiency by even 1-5x, it's not just code— it implies a broader workload shift across the tech sector.

didibus2• 3 years ago

I'm also wondering if it'll impact compensation in any way, as the work becomes easier and more accessible, I'd expect the pay will lower, since more people will be able to do the job with the help of AI.

larsonnn2• 3 years ago

From my perspective, hailing from Germany, I don't anticipate a decline in developer compensation. Instead, I foresee a future where companies will be selective, opting for developers who are adept at integrating AI into their workflow.

As we begin to reshape our approach to project construction, the inclusion of AI systems will become a standard component in our calculations. This realization will inevitably lead us to understand that certain tasks no longer require as many developers as they once did. Consequently, there might be a reduction in hiring rates for developers.

Nevertheless, I remain optimistic that while the demand for developers might become more selective, their compensation could potentially increase due to the specialized skills required in an AI-integrated landscape.

jnash• 3 years ago

Agree. I haven't seen any examples of ChatGPT that might make me want to use it for my job. Yes if you are an inexperienced programmer (or just not very competent) then it might help you get something working I guess?

tomduncalf• 3 years ago

A couple of things I’ve found it useful for as a senior dev:

- Working with unfamiliar APIs which don’t have great documentation. It can be quite helpful for asking questions here, essentially taking the role of Google/StackOverflow, as long as the API was created before the knowledge cutoff and I guess as long as there’s enough content out there. It felt to me like it was able to do quite a good job of linking together the (rather terse) official docs with code from GitHub to show real world examples of how to do stuff. This was definitely net useful for me, but it does like to hallucinate APIs that should exist but don’t.

- Working with unfamiliar languages. I used it to help me write Rust recently (“how can I express this code more succinctly?”, “why won’t this compile?”) and it was quite useful, though I feel like you hit the limits of it if you get deeper into e.g. trying to find a workaround for a borrow checker situation and it’ll just make up code that doesn’t work.

Outside of that, I find it can be quite useful as a supplement to Google, and is good for writing things like regexes, but when I’ve tried doing more advanced coding tasks with GPT-4, I felt like I ended up spending more time trying to make the output compile and work (sometimes without success) than if I had just written it myself. It can be good for working out the broad outline of a solution though.

Overall, I find it a useful tool but I am sceptical of people claiming a 5x increase in productivity thanks to GPT.

kuchenbecker• 3 years ago

Programmers used to program in Assembly. Id argue coding skills in modern languages are akin to knowing Assembly when C was invented; how programs are written will change.

ChatGPT Isn't Coming for Your Coding Job

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