Ask HN: Who is going to win the Kentucky Derby?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35808296

by Mobil1 • 3 years ago

1 4 3 years ago

news.ycombinator.com

retrocryptid• 3 years ago

I suspect it will be the horse that comes in first.

PaulHoule• 3 years ago

The odds (money bet) to win are a good probability estimator.

Mobil1• 3 years ago

Michelle Yu SKINNER #9 as the winner???

vgeek• 3 years ago

Angle of Empire or Verifying. Maybe Mandarin Hero if he draws in.

20 horse fields are chaotic, especially with positioning and horses getting boxed in, bumped, shuffled, going insanely wide into stretch. Forte got a horrible draw, but there hasn't been a better jockey over the past 2-3 years to handle it than Irad Ortiz. The 3/1 (probably ends up going off at 2/1 or worse) isn't that appealing for straight win bets. Maybe key him over those 3?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds - this is a good book that touches on how accurate predictions by groups can be. With horse racing, in aggregate, the wagering favorite wins ~30% of the time (field sizes vary), or one of the top 2 betting choices ~55% of the time.

Ask HN: Who is going to win the Kentucky Derby?

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