Microsoft vs. Google: The Endgame

https://shrimalmadhur.substack.com/p/microsoft-vs-google-the-endgame

by shrimalmadhur • 3 years ago

24 32 3 years ago

shrimalmadhur.substack.com

m3kw9• 3 years ago

Let’s see who will get default search for iOS, I mean who is wanting it more. Apple is eagerly waiting for that day

photonbeam• 3 years ago

Id love to see a privacy-focused search engine from Apple

seanhunter6• 3 years ago

Imo people (including the author of TFA) overestimate browser stickiness. Back in 2001 it looked like Microsoft’s dual monopolies over web serving with IIS and browsing with IE were severely entrenched but within a matter of a couple of years they were completely eclipsed in both arenas. If 80-90% of web users can transition from IE to chrome they can transition from chrome to the next big thing whatever that ends up being. There just needs to be a compelling reason to do that.

I think browser stickiness is even less now because the experience is so lacking in differentiation. Back then if (as I did) you used Mozilla or another minority browser there were huge swathes of the web that simply didn’t work at all because they depended on IE-only plugins or worked extremely poorly due to compatibility bugs etc. Now while chrome is definitely the best-supported browser among devs, due to the importance of mobile, sites have been forced to support webkit etc and that generally means that cross-compatibility is ok. I don’t often come across sites that are straight-up broken on Firefox for instance, just sometimes some features or layout are a bit wonky.

For that reason I don’t think chrome’s dominance of the browser landscape represents a advantage for Google that will persist.

seanhunter6• 3 years ago

Addition: also I’m pretty sure no-one in Google senior leadership can be that surprised by the JWST snafu with Bard. If they were super-confident in Bard they would have just released it for public beta and put it straight into people’s hands like chatGPT. Instead they’ve done a puff tour to get press coverage about how great it is and say that it will be in people’s hands soon.

tjpnz• 3 years ago

Google has had issues executing on AI in the past, the classic example being their AI classifying black people as gorillas[0]. I can understand why they might want to be cautious given all the scrutiny they'll be under.

[0] https://www.theverge.com/2018/1/12/16882408/google-racist-go...

gfody• 3 years ago

I feel like if Bard were any good they'd've used him (er the technology) to make a decent inbox policy for gmail. Or maybe that sort of work is beneath him, or would be inhumane? Or just too inefficient to be cost effective I suppose burning your creator's money in a furnace could induce something like suffering for a sentient AI.

candiodari• 3 years ago

No? Getting ChatGPT to lie is not exactly hard. In fact, it's so easy you do that by accident and constantly need to watch out for it happening. There's just a massive difference in reaction by external people. Clearly, people don't care about Microsoft/ChatGPT lying, don't care about plenty of websites and Youtube videos lying, but think it's the end of the world if Google gets it wrong.

I mean the only SNAFU Google leadership made was not realizing Bard was lying to them (or, I guess, not realizing what the reaction was going to be).

Funny test: I just asked ChatGPT about the exact same thing. Look at it's response:

Did JWST discover the first exoplanet?
No, the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has not discovered the first exoplanet. The discovery of exoplanets, or planets outside of our solar system, has been ongoing for several decades and numerous exoplanets have been discovered through various methods, such as radial velocity and transit observations. JWST is expected to contribute to the discovery and characterization of exoplanets, but it has not yet made any significant discoveries in this field as it was just launched in 2021.

Great start! Clearly it got updated since the Google presentation ... and then it directly dives into wrong information (JWST was designed to, and has made a great deal of significant exoplanet discoveries. Including a number of exoplanets, discovery of ongoing chemistry in exoplanet atmospheres, discovery of ongoing PHOTOchemistry in another exoplanet's atmosphere, ...)

LLMs lie. That's what they're designed to do! They don't care about truth, in fact I seriously doubt they even know what it is.

raincole3• 3 years ago

Exactly. Last year I switched from Mac to Windows. I was in a hurry to set up something else for work so I didn't download Chrome right away. And when I finally went to install Chrome, I realized that I had used Edge for a while and everything worked fine. So I just stopped using Chrome.

riku_iki• 3 years ago

to me killer feature from google is password manager shared between chrome and android.

Don't think transition would be easy..

binkHN• 3 years ago

If you're not aware, Edge is based on Chrome.

dmitriid2• 3 years ago

Back in 2001 it looked like Microsoft’s dual monopolies over web serving with IIS and browsing with IE

Microsoft didn't have search monopoly, mail monopoly, video hosting monopoly and an army of loyal devs who just love every non-standard feature thrown over the wall.

Youtube alone helped kill IE 6: https://www.androidpolice.com/2019/05/02/the-story-of-how-a-...

seanhunter6• 3 years ago

Microsoft did in fact have massive dominance over mail with exchange and they absolutely had an army of loyal devs developing active server pages, com object embeddings and a bunch of other non-standard features.

Your point is taken and google is of course a monopoly. I’m saying I don’t think browser stickiness will be that persistent. I could of course be wrong.

But all of the google services you mention work jsut fine in competitor browsers for the reason I mentioned (they have to, in order to work correctly on mobile devices etc).

JonathanBeuys2• 3 years ago

The article is a bit lightweight, and the title should be changed to just "Microft vs Google".

But anyhow, a good opportunity to discuss the super interesting situation around the new AI wars. IMHO the most interesting situation in tech since the dotcom area.

Are there any authors out ther (preferable in podcast or other audio form) who discuss the situation in depth?

What I currently wonder is where Apple stands. Every device (heck, every software!) will need a state of the art LLM to interact with its users. Will Apple develop their own, or will they be at the mercy of finding a supplier like Microsoft, OpenAI or Google who lets them use their LLM?

htag• 3 years ago

Apple should be able to defer integrating directly with an LLM by treating it like an any other application layer feature until they can develop their own. It should be within their reach to develop one in house or through acquisition.

seanhunter6• 3 years ago

Exactly. Back when voice assistants were the must-have feature they got Siri through acquisition. They could do a similar thing here (and then a Siri interface to it would be an obvious addition).

JonathanBeuys2• 3 years ago

You think they will let Bing become the default mode of user interaction with their phones?

Wouldn't that commoditize their product? If you have the same experience (talking to Bing) on any phone, why would people pay for the Apple brand?

It's not like they can buy and integrate another LLM any day just like that. There is nothing yet that has proven to be on par with ChatGPT. Google has something in the pipeline, but nobody has really compared it to ChatGPT yet.

If ChatGPT and (maybe) the new Google thing are the only players in town.. if I would be Apple, I would be worried.

Especially if one of them turns out to be clearly better than the other. Then Apple would depend on licensing that one.

fintechie2• 3 years ago

This Google vs MS situation is simply going to heat up the war for the search market share, but Apple and many other companies are fine and will roll out their own LLMs, as they're getting easier to build and train. Enhancing Siri seems like a natural first step.

bertman• 3 years ago

Every device (heck, every software!) will need a state of the art LLM to interact with its users.

Hm, didn't they also say that about AR/VR?

ClosedPistachio• 3 years ago

Benedict Evans has been doing a great job thinking this through recently. He has a newsletter but the podcast is great too.

https://another-podcast.simplecast.com/

fintechie2• 3 years ago

[...] people are tweeting that they have installed Bing app or opened Bing.com for the first time...

And many others doing a revisit after X years and surprised with the search results... Anyone else having this impression?

It feels more like Google should be (or was in the early days).

drewcoo• 3 years ago

Satya talking about "making them dance" reminds me a little too much of Taika Waititi in Free Guy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zyRtfDzdWM

I have trouble taking him seriously.

wesapien• 3 years ago

I installed the Bing app on my phone today because I want that ChatGPT. I also used Bing.com today since never. Bing gives me more relevant information without even scrolling. Google wastes more space to the right.

Microsoft vs. Google: The Endgame

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