Brexit may end dreams of Scottish and Welsh independence

https://thomasprosser.substack.com/p/brexit-may-end-dreams-of-scottish

3 1 3 years ago

thomasprosser.substack.com

ggm• 3 years ago

Illustrated by two vignettes: Fishers securing better economic outcomes in a domestic market and the intractable problem of the English-Welsh border.

Scotland's economy is about a little bit more than fish, and the English-Scots border is very different. The two national independence movements may share aspirations but are legally distinct. Scotland is a kingdom. The union was consensual (after a fashion) in 1707 but left scots law distinct. Wales is a principality, captured in the 13th century.

The fundamentals are illustrative but perhaps not very compelling?

It is possible. Interest in independence waxes and wanes. I certainly wouldn't have predicted Checkia and Slovakia, it seemed economically suicidal for one, other or both. It still happened.

As did brexit, despite sucking 7% or more out of the economy. That's a lot of fish.

He has a point. I just don't see it as more than a maybe. The Scots economy isn't that different to Norway's and Norway has a long complex land border too. With an economic partner.

Brexit may end dreams of Scottish and Welsh independence

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