Age-stratified infection fatality rate of Covid-19 in the non-elderly population

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001393512201982X

by olouv • 4 years ago

33 19 4 years ago

sciencedirect.com

sfusato• 4 years ago

The median IFR was:

- 0.0003% at 0–19 years

- 0.002% at 20–29 years

- 0.011% at 30–39 years

- 0.035% at 40–49 years

- 0.123% at 50–59 years

- 0.506% at 60–69 years.

yucky4• 4 years ago

How on earth do people justify supporting mandates (especially for kids) with data like this?

javagram3• 4 years ago

1. The article is by John Ioannadis who has a history of publishing studies/analysis arguing for a lower COVID-19 IFR than other scientists.

2. Most arguments for “mandates” aren’t made in reference to numbers anyway, or reference long COVID, MIS-C, etc rather than fatality rate.

3. This article is for pre-vaccine IFR (i.e. 2020 COVID, the extinct Wuhan strain) and most current arguments reference newer variants which are alleged to be more dangerous. Delta actually was significantly more dangerous although omicron variants are probably back to the original 2020 IFR in the unvaccinated.

hotpotamus• 4 years ago

I'm not particularly aware of any mandates anymore, even in China where my impression was that their zero-covid policy seems to have collapsed. But what numbers would you want to see to support a mandate?

pvaldes• 4 years ago

How on earth do people justify supporting mandates (especially for kids) with data like this?

we still need to explain it one more time?.

Because millions of people died. And because children have grandparents

This is just the people that were manipulated to deny the problem, looking desperately for a decorous way out that would justify their unjustifiable, selfish and bizarre behavior.

icsa• 4 years ago

Long COVID is an important consideration. I'm seeing people in their 20s and 30s whose lives are being turned upside down with Long COVID. And yes, children are being affected directly as well - esp. gastro-intestinal issues.

nerdchum2• 4 years ago

For contrast car accidents in 2019.

(36,096 / 350 million) * 100

0.0103%

Considering that each person on the road increases car accident fatality chance for others.

Just interesting to look at what we allow from a safety perspective in comparison to COVID.

(that is actually larger since to keep it simple I didn't calculate that only 90% of Americans have a driver's license)

atoav• 4 years ago

Just interesting to look at what we allow from a safety perspective in comparison to COVID

I assume the IFR percentage includes whole societies responding to the pandemic. These numbers might have turned out much higher if we did not respond, as some demanded. E.g. because saturating health systems into triage leads to increased mortality (even for conditions outside covid). I mean there are probably people who died because their scheduled operations have been moved back because the ER rooms were full. Viewing a pandemic simply through a mortality percentage is therefore problematic.

At the same time cars kill to many people and we are doing not enough about that. People don't like the implications of what taking car deaths seriously would mean. It would mean less freedom, stricter laws, a total reshaping of transportation, cities and the way people live etc. It is not taken seriously because people don't want to follow through with what needed to be done if it was taken seriously.

A bit like the people who assured themselves that c19 was just "like the flu" and that "masks don't help". They told themselves that, because they were afraid of living in a world where this was actually true. That would have meant taking responsibility for the health of those around you.

nerdchum2• 4 years ago

IFR means infected people who died.

IFR is measuring post infection fatality.

This eliminates masks and all other infection prevention responses from the discussion. This study was also done from pre-vaccination data as well.

This is the raw number of people who die after already being infected with covid.

Age-stratified infection fatality rate of Covid-19 in the non-elderly population

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