World economy to experience recession in 2023

https://www.firstpost.com/world/world-economy-to-experience-recession-in-2023-says-centre-for-economics-and-business-research-11874611.html

by saikatsg • 4 years ago

23 20 4 years ago

firstpost.com

afpx2• 4 years ago

Aren't recessions identified after the fact?

If I only listened to media over the past year, I would think we're already deep into a depression.

Phiwise_8• 4 years ago

Car crashes are also identified after the fact. Doesn't make it unreasonable to declare one when you first notice your wheels have lost traction on the ice. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2YM

thinkmcfly3• 4 years ago

Plenty of people spin out without hitting anything.

oneoff7862• 4 years ago

Do you think this analogy captures the nuances of this situation? Or is it just vaguely aligned with your opinion?

credit_guy• 4 years ago

One way to read the negative spread between the 10 year Treasuries and the 2 year Treasuries is that at some point beyond 2 years the Fed will lower the rates and keep them low for a while. That's consistent with a recession. But not in 2023. Maybe in 2025.

survirtual• 4 years ago

You don’t need the media to see we are in a deep depression the likes of which hasn’t been seen since the Great Depression.

Did you know housing is less affordable now than it was during the Great Depression? [1]

Most food was also cheaper adjusted for inflation, with some exceptions, like milk.

You could say something like “but unemployment isn’t even close” — except with the way unemployment is calculated, many people who aren’t working are not considered unemployed. In my experience driving around this country, I watched as pristine countryside during Covid turned over the years into nomadic cities of impoverished people. The 525 outside of Sedona, BLM and National Forest land all over the country, turning into cities of people without homes, evading rent and modern serfdom, or just not being able to keep up with anything.

For these people, we are in a Great Depression. During the Great Depression, there were also many people still employed. The employed people still lived a good life. The difference is, the employed people had to physically go to work, interact with the community and society at large, and had to come face to face with the depression around them.

With the internet, remote work, the norm of package delivery, food delivery, grocery delivery, and the digitization of banking & digital services, along with the digitization of finance, there is no need for that any longer. People with means can completely insulate from the suffering of lower class.

So for them, we never need to be in a Great Depression ever again — as saying so would shatter the illusion of abundance being portrayed.

I know we are in a Great Depression because I have seen it with my own eyes as I wander this country. The strange thing is, most everyone else doesn’t seem to see it.

[1] https://relevantmagazine.com/current/nation/report-its-harde...

afpx2• 4 years ago

You may be right. I haven't wandered around, recently. But, from what have seen, even those places most destitute, they're not much worse off than what I experienced in the 80s and 90s.

Now, it's a shame that those places haven't experienced the growth and vibrance that many areas did over the past 30 years. But, having lived in the US without basic necessities like housing, plumbing, food, or heat, I will say that it doesn't seem as bad as you make it.

CRConrad• 4 years ago

Well, duh. Was anyone expecting anything else by now?

World economy to experience recession in 2023

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