Ask HN: Can you play Nostradamus for the crypto industry?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33569704

by nvln • 4 years ago

2 3 4 years ago

news.ycombinator.com

Can you write your predicted future timeline for the industry based on current / past events.

- Can be near or far future.

- Can be specific (Company XYZ will fold like FTX by 2023) or generic (All governments will have a digital coins by 2030).

- Can be related to policy, product, public sentiment or adoption.

Finnucane• 4 years ago

I think Criswell would be more appropriate.

Tesl• 4 years ago

The recent story of the crypto industry is that everyone has been leveraging up hard on a negative sum game.

Therefore the expectation has to be that almost everybody is insolvent, but most of them haven't been found out yet.

It seems reasonable to expect both tether and binance to implode over the next few years, but it's hard to predict exactly when.

As far as adoption goes, blockchain tech is practically useless and has gone nowhere in 14 years. There is no reason to expect that to change, so for all intents and purposes real crypto use (outside of crime and speculation) will remain as basically nothing and no industry anywhere will be 'disrupted' by it.

The price will randomly go up and down and more people will continue to get hooked into different scams. Crypto is here to stay in the same way that pyramid schemes and timeshares are here to stay.

mikewarot• 4 years ago

I think governments will attempt to use the FTX and other thefts to justify a "Digital Currency" issued by Central Banks, while leaving BTC and the rest alone, taxing any profits.

Government controlled digital currency should scare the heck out of anyone who thinks about it for a bit. The next step after that is the prohibition of cash.

I'm not sure if they'll be able to pull it off, or not.

Ask HN: Can you play Nostradamus for the crypto industry?

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