A Drop-In Solution for Replacing Human Labor? Kawada’s Nextage Robot

http://singularityhub.com/2011/12/09/a-drop-in-solution-for-replacing-human-labor-kawadas-nextage-robot/

by JDulin • 15 years ago

32 34 15 years ago

FD3SA2• 15 years ago

This seems to be a transition stage for fine motor skill robots with advanced object recognition capabilities. A few more iterations will surely make the human counterparts obsolete, as demonstrated by the rapid automation of manufacturing giants such as FOXCONN.

JDulin• 15 years ago

The most exciting part is that once a few large companies like FOXCONN make a commitment to robotic manufacturing, we may be able to see the exponential decreases in robot costs we have been waiting for as they want cheaper sensors and actuators in larger quantities. Robotics have been (and are) incredibly expensive, but but we are reaching a point where the price will begin to plummet.

marshallp• 15 years ago

Heartland robotics, rodney brooks' startup funded by jeff bezos working on a 5000 dollar robot arm. That will really kickstart the revolution.

dangrossman• 15 years ago

This doesn't excite me, it scares me. A rapid transition to robotic manufacturing could mean a very rough time for an entire generation of human workers.

wickedchicken• 15 years ago

> A few more iterations will surely make the human counterparts obsolete

Say this to any AI researcher who has done work in the past 5 decades. See what happens.

ftwinnovations• 15 years ago

Unfortunately I don't know any AI researchers who have done work in the past 5 decades. Would you care to share what would happen?

In all honesty I have no idea. Would they laugh and say that "no way AI needs another 20 years"? Or would they say it's only a few years until everyone working with their hands is out of work? Kudos on the pretentious reply btw.

mooki• 15 years ago

Where AI has consistently failed is creating a real thinking machine that can reason and adapt. That's not what we're building today though.

The problem is to many peoples jobs are to easy and highly specialized. They don't require strong AI - just good enough "dumb" algorithms, and we're getting really good at those. Doing paperwork by strict specifications. Driving a truck from point A to B. Assemble a circuitboard from a blueprint. As long as you keep a handful of humans in the loop incase something unexpected happens, this is all stuff robots can do today.

ippisl• 15 years ago

All we've seen from foxconn is a lot of huge promises.They amounts they mention were equal to doubling the robotics market in a very short time.

On the other hand , threatening to replace workers with robots in mass , seem like a powerful negotiation tactic.

I'll believe it when i see it.

HeyLaughingBoy2• 15 years ago

Yeah, but here's the thing: it will always be cheaper to design products to be manufactured by special-purpose robots than to design them to be manufactured by humans and use "human-capable" robots to do the work instead.

A perfect example is modern electronics. A large part of the reason for the rise of surface mount electronic components (SMT parts are soldered to the same side of the circuit board that they are placed on) is that they make it much cheaper to assemble electronics by automated pick & place machines than it would have been to keep the older through-hole components (with pins/wires that go through the board and are soldered on the opposite side) and use human-like robots to assemble them.

Likewise, airplanes have autopilots designed into them for that purpose instead of having robotic pilots sitting in seats.

The reality is that in most large volume manufacturing, special purpose automation will win out over general purpose robots.

arkitaip• 15 years ago

At ~$100,000 USD this will simply not replace dirt cheap labor in developing countries for decades to come.

ken• 15 years ago

Maybe not, but it could replace low-wage jobs in developed countries.

Imagine a 24-hour fast-food restaurant that employs several people at minimum wage. A robot could work all 3 shifts around the clock nonstop, not require much space, and be "trained" in new types of food preparation with an instantaneous software upgrade.

My economics professor once said he'd heard that if minimum wage got up to $20/hour, it would be cheaper for McD's to use robots. This is changing the other side of the equation.

repsilat• 15 years ago

Minimum wage in Australia is $15.51/hour + 9% superannuation contribution. This comes out to $16.91/hour or USD17.23/hour. If these things can work 24/7 with the same productivity of a worker on minimum wage they'll pay themselves off in eight months (plus/minus other costs associated with employees and these machines).

moe• 15 years ago

The price will naturally come down as they go into mass production. Also keep in mind robots will happily work 24 hour shifts in addition to being more effective per hour.

nl2• 15 years ago

It might, if they are materially faster.

Wages in China and India are growing. There are places with lower wages, but the infrastructure for major industry isn't always there.

Someone• 15 years ago

One decade, yes, but decades? I bet that, if you ordered 10,000 of these, the price would fall significantly; let's say to $25,000.

Now suppose these things manage to run at a 80% duty cycle. That way, they run for around 130 hours a week, replacing 2.5 workers. Those workers make, say, about 2.5 x $1000 = $2500 a year, for a gap of 10:1.

I do not think it will take a decade to close that gap. Firstly, you can design your factory for robots; get rid of most toilets, lunch facilities, walkways, etc. Also get rid of 90% of your huge HR staff (which is huge due to high personnel turnover). Pay the high-tech workers who do robot maintenance from the salaries of the toilet cleaners, restaurant personnel, etc, you got rid of.

Also get rid of the non-billable hours you have now that you spend training personnel on producing this month's product.

I think there will still be a large margin, especially since these things eat power (1.5kW per robot adds up) and since these robots may work slower than the humans they replace.

Decades, however, is a long, long time. A single decade is a factor of 64 in Moore's law, so power usage will decrease to about 80W (for the robot) + 1500W/64 (for control hardware) ~= 100W in a decade. Alternatively, some of the extra CPU power, could, conceivably, be used to speed up these robots.

Tharkun• 15 years ago

is this something we should worry about? If we, as a civilisation (forget countries for a second) hypothetically replace all labourers by robots, then what? Is it any different from using cheap overseas labour? Will we be able to find something else to do for these people? Should we turn to communism in the long term, if the only 'working' people are software&robotics engineers? We obviously can't all be tech workers, can we? And would that even be useful?

tomjen32• 15 years ago

Once upon a time we were all farmers. Why not tech workers, designers and graphics people?

_Y_2• 15 years ago

There will always be unknown things and things to achieve! There is still nuclear fusion, computer brain interface, genetic engineering, inhabiting other planets. Figuring out how universe works, if there are other realities, etc.

My personal thoughts are that communism is merely the next step after capitalism (after discovering fusion and fabricating nanotechnology), however I don't think/hope it will play out as it had before in Russia.

HeyLaughingBoy2• 15 years ago

Why do you think that?

bitsweet• 15 years ago

Automation poses a real threat to the factory worker

Correction: Automation poses a real threat to everyone

rhino42• 15 years ago

Correction: automation possess a threat to those who do not work principally with their mind. Knowledge workers won't be in danger of marginalization in the near future

_Y_2• 15 years ago

Correction: automation can replace doctors and researchers (which principally work with their mind).

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/04/090402-robot... http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/131697.stm

ranit8• 15 years ago

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expert_system

tomjen32• 15 years ago

Oh please.

If we didn't have all the automation we have today, our lives would suck.

The only ones threatedned by automation are those who are unwilling to get a different job.

A Drop-In Solution for Replacing Human Labor? Kawada’s Nextage Robot

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