Predicting the Future of Computing

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/12/06/science/20111206-technology-timeline.html

by klwolk • 15 years ago

38 26 15 years ago

nytimes.com

chunky19944• 15 years ago

This is quite a decent prediction, except for the Sci-fi in the AI future timeline!

keymone• 15 years ago

a million lemmings can't be wrong, yeah

david927• 15 years ago

Where can we vote that none of this will happen this way?

nazgulnarsil• 15 years ago

lol at any prediction after AI.

vetler• 15 years ago

Here's my prediction: the future won't be like we imagine it.

g3orge• 15 years ago

It's constantly updated. Nice.

erkin_unlu• 15 years ago

AI future timeline is scary, why would people are so arrogant that we are so sure that we can give all the power to machines and then we can control them all we want?

loup-vaillant6• 15 years ago

We don't control the AI. If we manage to build a self-improving AI (first hard problem), it will take over the world, and there will be nothing we can do about it. Assuming of course that the Intelligence Explosion scenario is correct. I believe it to be likely.

Now the second, crucial, super-hard problem is making sure the AI is Friendly. Even harder, define what "Friendly" could possibly mean. It's a Literal Genie you have there, be careful what you ask for. A tiny mistake may mean we're all doomed.

Oh, and we're not sure at all it will actually go well. But it might be worth a shot. (What is not worth a shot is launching an AI first, and checking it is a Good™ one after the fact. You need to be super-certain of your design before you launch it.)

iwwr2• 15 years ago

I haven't read a convincing argument on how such an entity would actually take over. She would have to be endowed with physical means, not just intelligence. She'd have to have humans do her bidding to a great extent and for a long time.

divtxt2• 15 years ago

Even if we build an AI that can be controlled, I expect it would be used to enable a fascist dictatorship by few in control. :P

chunky19944• 15 years ago

What we've to understand is that a machine that has intelligence doesn't necessarily have emotion, as you so rightly pointed out with your friendly comment. However this doesn't mean it will take over the world, it just means it will do what it was meant to, and become better at what it was meant to do that's intelligence. It may even start to work on things it hasn't been told to work on, but that doesn't mean it's going to abolish governance and force humans into submission.

chunky19944• 15 years ago

I agree, that was the same point I tried to make, and yet got downvoted for it.

rrrazdan• 15 years ago

Is it just me or is everyone overtly optimistic.

loup-vaillant6• 15 years ago

Think of each prediction as "I estimate there's 50% chances of that happening by that date". Now, there's so many predictions that they do add up to a very detailed, and therefore improbable, story.

It may explain a good deal of perceived optimism.

caller9• 15 years ago

Too bad you can't move Mobile Wallet back to the time when it became common in Japan.

The AI singularity will probably end with a space-faring AI that leaves our asses here. It will be too smart to share this knowledge with us before it leaves. We will be a concern that may inhibit these plans, not much more.

However, if we mistakenly make something that closely mimics the human brain, it may not end up growing exponentially before it decrees that further self improvement is unnecessary for world domination then also goes nuts and turns all Skynet on us.

Lambdanaut• 15 years ago

The bell curve for educated guesses on things that can't be known for sure usually settles on something close to correct. Maybe they're onto something! (This at least usually works with guessing the amount of candy in a jar)

alexholehouse• 15 years ago

You've hit the nail on the head though - "educated". Perhaps unfair, but I find it hard to believe that people making guesses on these items could be genuinely educated regarding the issues surrounding them.

I completely include myself in this category - what do I know about the logistic changes needed to change manufacturing for some of these devices, or market demand etc. I can speculate regarding the technology, but even then it's just speculation based on a totally superficial understanding. It's so easy to ignore things like FDA approval, production scale up, resource shortages etc.

brohee• 15 years ago

"2080 Bicentennial Man"

Didn't occur to them than that person would have to be 131 year old now....

Predicting the Future of Computing

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