PredictIt is shutting down after CFTC withdraws no-action letter

https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements

by paulgb • 4 years ago

28 16 4 years ago

linhvn• 4 years ago

For people looking for alternatives, Kalshi (YC W19) is a regulated exchange on event contracts. It offers some markets similar to PredictIt (and more).

basementcat• 4 years ago

"The Iowa Electronic Markets is a futures market run for research and teaching purposes. Traders can buy or sell real money contracts based on their belief about the outcome of an election or other event."

https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/

Ariarule• 4 years ago

While groundbreaking for its time (started 1988!), the IEM is a very poor substitute for PredictIt. While I could offer a half-dozen reasons why, some of which were noted in CFTC Letter 14-130 for PredictIT in the first place, it'd probably do to point out that their "current" markets consist entirely of:

* 2022 French Presidential Election Markets (I haven't looked at these too closely that maybe there's a reason they're still listed as "current" on the IEM site, but wasn't this election back in April?)

* 2022 U.S. Congressional Control Markets (3 Markets: Senate, House, and Overall)

If you're trying to use prediction market prices as a gauge of the state of the world, IEM is missing dozens of countries, does not give visibility into US state-level elections, and does not include the result of primaries or political events besides elections that nonetheless impact elections. The 2024 US Presidential election is not even on the radar yet there.

Credit where credit is due for the trailblazing, they're worth a look when they do have a market on an event going, and it's notable for being sort-of a proof of concept for prediction markets. But while IEM may now be the best fit within a particular niche in light of what's happened to PredictIt, it's not in the same league.

yieldcrv3• 4 years ago

Why even look for alternatives, prediction markets suck due to inherent limitations in liquidity, making it impossible for them to ever fulfill their purpose of broadcasting what "the market" believes. One market participant with slightly larger size moves the state on low volume.

londons_explore2• 4 years ago

They could be high volume though... There might be traders who run AI bots to scour Twitter and other news sources and do high frequency trading to earn money on volatility. Just like stocks and shares.

nojito• 4 years ago

I’ve made hundreds of thousands of dollars on predictit. It was a great way to make a straightforward side income for me for many years.

Jellyd• 4 years ago

I liked them until they started emailing me for my SSN... I'm looking for an alternative now

paulgb• 4 years ago

If your winnings exceed a threshold ($600 IIRC?), they need this to issue a 1099MISC. Any IRS-compliant service would do the same, including PredictIt.

wills_forward• 4 years ago

This is such a bummer, but not shocked they're out-of-bounds given the bullets in the letter and how big they've become: https://www.cftc.gov/csl/22-08/download

puffoflogic• 4 years ago

With markets weighing heavily against the current administration, of which cftc is a part, this is a no-brainer.

Rebelgecko• 4 years ago

This is a real shame. It was a lot of fun to see how the markets behaved every election year

ddp26• 4 years ago

Good luck to the crypto prediction markets, we need them more than ever now. https://polymarket.com/

JohnHaugeland• 4 years ago

No, we don't. They're illegal, and legal alternatives exist

londons_explore2• 4 years ago

Betting odds perform much the same task, but with a substantially higher fee...

PredictIt is shutting down after CFTC withdraws no-action letter

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