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The Quiz Daniel Kahneman Wants You to Fail

http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/12/kahneman-quiz-201112

by kjw • 15 years ago

2 1 15 years ago

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bahadden• 15 years ago

I just read this and came here to see if anyone else was confused by some of the answers they've given.

From question 2: "They found that a large percentage of participants overestimated the likelihood that Jack was an engineer, even though mathematically, there was only a 30-in-100 chance of that being true."

So all the additional information we are given should be ignored, no patterns can be derived, and stereotypes have no basis in reality?

Sounds like bollocks to me. But then I don't really follow probability theory, kinda lost interest in a class I took when the lecturer proved that you were more likely to be hit by a bus every day for a year than win the lottery.

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