Blundering into a nuclear war in Ukraine: a hypothetical scenario

https://www.nti.org/atomic-pulse/blundering-into-a-nuclear-war-in-ukraine-a-hypothetical-scenario/

by spuz • 4 years ago

14 11 4 years ago

yosito• 4 years ago

This reads to me like pure fiction. Maybe not far-fetched, but very little substantive info. Does anyone have a link to anything more in depth about either the strategy likely to be involved, the anticipated consequences, or the post-nuclear war world and how any surviving governments or local powers might act in the months and years after the fact?

zardo• 4 years ago

"A hypothetical scenario" is a fiction.

ecf• 4 years ago

Which then leads to the question, why is the wartime equivalent of anime fan-fiction appearing on HN?

bartmika• 4 years ago

Honestly, this movie is the most realistic fictional depiction. It's time range is before, during and after:

Threads (1984) via https://youtu.be/5Srqyd8B9gE

And if you want to know how the world would like after the movie Threads, read the following book:

A Canticle for Leibowitz (1959) via https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Canticle_for_Leibowitz

yesenadam2• 4 years ago

Threads (1984) via https://youtu.be/5Srqyd8B9gE

Video unavailable (in Australia at least)

type0• 4 years ago

Completely unlikely scenario, more likely case from history would be something like https://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/25/world/europe/turkey-syria... but that doesn't mean it leads to nuclear escalation.

eveningcoffee• 4 years ago

Another armchair fear monger spreads nonsense. It goes wrong from the very beginning: Russian anti-satellite missiles fires. You do not do that unless you want to get nuked. Of course considering how imbecile Russian military command is, I would be not completely surprised (every military experts says that it was unthinkable to even consider real possibility of overpowering Ukrainian army with given Russian forces).

credit_guy• 4 years ago

That's not a very realistic scenario.

Here's a much more realistic one: Putin keeps getting his ass kicked, as it happened today when he lost the Orsk amphibious landing ship. Instead of admitting defeat, he decides to use a tactical nuke. He has a spectrum of options, from an underground nuclear test somewhere in Siberia, to an underwater detonation in "Russian waters" in the Black Sea, to an above ground detonation over Russian territory, but close to Ukraine, to an outright detonation in Ukraine, but with few or no casualties, to nuking an Ukrainian village, or even city, and ultimately a tactical nuclear attack on a Nato country.

At each point on this spectrum, Biden has to make a decision. There are 3 possibilities: response with no nukes, response in kind (a similar tactical nuke) and all out nuclear war. The middle ground is no good, because it legitimizes Putin's first use, and does not actually put him in a worse position. No nukes is a bad move, because Putin will just become more audacious. All out war is obviously not a good move either.

What is Biden going to do? Is it possible that in the end Putin comes out ahead?

That's how Putin thinks.

fasghfdsdf• 4 years ago

I think the actual algo weighting stuff about what action follows a nuclear detonation is more heavy on the actual loses the nuclear incident caused. Then a political approach has to be triggered, someone would call Putin or whoever is at the phone in Russia, "look guys, we saw your flare from here, nothing remarkable happened BUT just don't push it anymore".

If Putin decides to go wild nuking one more thing, again, you should look at what the heck was actually blowed up, and then look what's next on your side.

At some point, even if Putin detonates 3 nuclear devices on his own land, some serious sh*t will unfold, most probably from inside Russia's top leadership, which exists and probably is constantly looking for practical crazyness in his new czar.

Spoiler Alert: czars are not meant to last forever.

If you remember, something like this already happened when North Korea started its underground testing. Nobody was saying it aloud, but most certainly lots of military resources were at least half awake, ready to go into WWIII at moments notice. But nothing happened.

Blundering into a nuclear war in Ukraine: a hypothetical scenario

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