U.S. stunned by Poland's fighter jet offer

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/08/poland-transfers-mig-fighters-to-the-us-as-ukraine-asks-for-help-00015259

by colinprince • 4 years ago

32 43 4 years ago

steve_gh• 4 years ago

By refusing the US is sending a message - they can change their minds if the Russians don't negotiate

Considering the speed and scale of sanctions against Russia, I am thinking that the US might actually be after 'regime change' in Russia. If so, is ending the war now the best option to reach that goal?

In any case, it seems that everyone want to avoid escalation and being dragged into the military conflict.

jsmith45• 4 years ago

The US wants Russia to stop trying to attack and annex its neighbors, including Ukraine.

My understanding is that Putin can't stop the invasion of Ukraine without looking so weak that he is liable to be immediately pushed out of power (with a decent chance of the subsequent regime coming up with some reason to execute him, as he would remain a threat to the new regime).

The result is that while the US does not necessarily want a Russian regime change per se (after all, who is to say that the next regime won't be worse), one is pretty much a practical requirement to archive what they do want.

smackeyacky• 4 years ago

That is an interesting technical challenge for Poland - having to remove any NATO specific telecommunication gear before handing the jets over. Given they probably don't want to reveal what is "sensitive" (guessing encrypted radios and battle network stuff) the idea of trying to pull that gear and leave the Migs flyable by Ukraine might take months. Let alone the political and legal issues of transferring those planes.

It's not like sending Spitfires overseas in a pine box any more.

rosndo• 4 years ago

I’ve not worked with fancy modern(ized). fighter jets, but if they’re anything like normal planes this stuff is probably not very hard to pull out.

But the closest I’ve gotten to messing around with this stuff is my L39 (terrible idea, should’ve bought a boat instead. wife hates me now), which did indeed come with some soviet era kit screwed on. Came off easily enough after removing a couple of screws.

I’d be surprised if the interesting parts of the radio equipment they’ve screwed onto the old MiGs would take much more than that to remove.

Aviation authority approvals might take months, but I can’t imagine that being an issue for military planes like this.

gumby• 4 years ago

I wouldn't be surprised if the NATO package was not just circuit modules but certain kinds of antennas, perhaps countermeasures that required modification of the chassis etc. And the original equipment might not be around.

Just my uninformed speculation though.

wikidani• 4 years ago

my L39

please, tell me that there are pictures I can look. I love those little planes :D

WFHRenaissance• 4 years ago

wife hates me now

The dawgs got your back though – I'd do it too, assuming it didn't thrust you into financial disaster. YOLO.

AndrewKemendo• 4 years ago

I've been seriously considering getting an albatross.

It sounds like you don't think it's a good purchase, so I'm curious what would you have done instead given what you know now?

perihelions• 4 years ago

- "It's not like sending Spitfires overseas in a pine box any more. "

I found a photo of what this looks like (different airplane, but same era):

https://www.awm.gov.au/collection/012129

zeruch• 4 years ago

It is a very unorthodox move by Poland, but possibly born of its own conservative, tough-guy leadership that wants to send its own message to its neighborhood that if Russia is feeling expansionist, Poland isn't going to sit idle. Since it is next to Belarus (an accomplice to Russia right now) this may be as much directed at them as it is Putin.

T-A6• 4 years ago

The Polish proposal is so strange I find it hard to believe it's in good faith.

Look at a map: Poland has a long common border with Western Ukraine, but instead it offers to fly the other way, to Ramstein, more than a thousand kilometers from Ukraine.

Once the planes are in Ramstein, what do you do? Fly them back to Poland? That makes no sense, and according to the article, the idea is that "the Polish government would sidestep the logistical challenge of getting the jets over the border".

That leaves the three other NATO countries bordering Ukraine: Slovakia, Hungary and Romania.

But Hungary refuses to let lethal weapons transit its territory en route to Ukraine, so strike that. Slovakia shares only a short border with Ukraine - about 80 kilometers - and it's sandwiched between Poland and Hungary; too easy for Russia to watch.

That leaves only Romania. How do you get there from NATO territory? Not through Hungary (see above), so you're left with a ridiculous roundabout route like Germany -> France -> Italy -> Greece -> Bulgaria -> Romania.

Do they all agree to it? Why in particular would Romania be willing to tackle "the logistical challenge of getting the jets over the border" which Poland (and Hungary) won't touch with a bargepole?

omega35• 4 years ago

You're missing the point, it was never a logistical issue. Poland wanted to avoid giving the migs directly so they proposed that they would transfer the ownership to the US for the US to transfer to Ukraine. Even better if you mix all the planes from other NATO countries to lower the risk for any one particular country. The planes can then go to Ukraine from the US removing Poland from the deal.

T-A6• 4 years ago

You're missing the point

No, I'm underscoring it.

The planes can then go to Ukraine from the US

How?

dirtyid4• 4 years ago

IMO it's Poland telling American and Germany to assume risk of escalation. Reporting from 3+ days ago read like US pressuring eastern blocks to ship planes to UKR to provide runway access which puts them in crosshairs of RU retaliation.

water84• 4 years ago

Let’s be real Poland is probably tired of getting invaded and would rather someone else take the heat for once

omega35• 4 years ago

How can US be stunned if they've been discussing the MIG transfer for at least 7 days as has been reported. This is clearly a PR move that will only lower the trust in the US.

water84• 4 years ago

Poland wasn’t supposed to transfer them to the United States first because now it looks like the United States is directly giving them to Ukraine

surrealize• 4 years ago

Poland and the US are both NATO. Somehow sending them from Poland is better? And we’re going to let concerns about how Russia would perceive the transfer dictate what we do?

We’ve already sent a bunch of weapons into Ukraine. These jets are just another entry in that long list.

We need to get this transfer done.

dirtyid4• 4 years ago

My understanding of planes for Ukraine drama: US pressuring Poland and other eastern bloc countries to direct transfer planes to UKR. This puts heat on Poland et al. Poland unceremoniously deflects by proposing (threatening) to transfer planes to US bases in Germany, a polite way of saying no-you. Either stops the pressure or in case of US/DE saying yes, Poland gets to trade in obsolete migs for discount/ first dibs on F16s without painting target on back.

dragonwriter4• 4 years ago

My understanding of planes for Ukraine drama: US pressuring Poland and other eastern bloc countries to direct transfer planes to UKR.

No, the US has been fairly consistently negative to neutral on it; the strongest it's gotten for it is a positive signal that it won't oppose it if they choose to do it. (Which seems to be a recent policy change; the initial NATO opposition after the EU official tweeting the idea had to have at least involved consulting the US.)

dirtyid4• 4 years ago

US wouldnt have considered backfilling poland with f16s in 3 way trade deal a few days ago if they were merely neutral/negative. That reads as low key wink wink nudge nudge endorsement.

U.S. stunned by Poland's fighter jet offer

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