The most surprising demographic crisis

http://www.economist.com/node/18651512

by spottiness • 15 years ago

49 39 15 years ago

hugh3• 15 years ago

It really shouldn't be surprising that after a few decades of one-child policy you're going to wind up with far more old people than young people. If they didn't see this one coming then I'd be very surprised.

Most Western countries are facing a similar problem with aging populations, though on a lesser scale demographically. On the other hand, the Chinese government is much happier to leave folks to fend for themselves, while Western governments run into problems as the old folks demand ever-increasing spending on pensions and health care.

vidar• 15 years ago

They do see it coming and that is why they are working like crazy to boost the economy before the inevitable slowdown.

BasDirks• 15 years ago

It has been known for at least a decade. I had some resource on this but they went bye-bye along with my hard drive. I'll see if I can find them and edit this post.

lautenbach• 15 years ago

Interesting when you compare the argument made in the ranking article right now (http://www.spacex.com/updates.php) to the one made here in the Economist. China is at a crossroads it would seem. Further, the potential for China to have an even greater healthcare-cost problem than the US seems pretty obvious now, no?

eyeforgotmyname• 15 years ago

The gender imbalance is a real problem. Historically cultures that have an overabundance of males end up at war. I really would hate to be a typical male in that culture right now. But it's good that their birthrate is decreasing.

w1ntermute6• 15 years ago

It'll be very interesting to see how the Chinese government deals with (1) the gender imbalance, once the surplus of males reach marrying age and (2) the dearth of young people.

I wouldn't be surprised if they easily solved problem #2 by paying poor people to have more kids (though there will still be a period of labor shortage, during which they'll probably bring in migrant workers that they'll unceremoniously boot out when they're no longer needed), but the solution to #1 will be very interesting to observe.

There are few things that stir as much civil unrest as not being able to find a woman to marry. They will have to either (a) subsidize the import of women from Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, North Korea, Mongolia and other poor neighbors, or (b) kill the surplus men. Given the modern Chinese government's penchant for a foreign policy of non-interference, (b) seems like the most likely option. But even China's economic hegemony at the time may not be enough to suppress the inevitable cries of outrage from abroad (and perhaps even at home) at the mass murder of millions of young men.

arkitaip2• 15 years ago

Import women or kill the surplus men?! Could we please tone down the vitriol? Frankly, the barbarism your "solutions" presupposes is quite offensive.

w1ntermute6• 15 years ago

Then do you have any alternate solutions? I highly doubt that all those men will be satisfied with sexbots, no matter how realistic the Japanese will have made them by then.

My presuppositions were purely based on the Chinese government's history of human rights violations. Given that the government is dominated by engineers, it's actually not that surprising that they focus on the ends rather than the means. I did not intend to inject any vitriol; I was simply giving some probable solutions based on an objective assessment of the situation.

joe_the_user2• 15 years ago

I don't think parent is advocating anything, just talking about the dangers involved in the situation. And it is a dangerous situation.

A large group of young men unable to find a mate is a large group of unhappy humans of the type which are traditionally most likely to resort to violence. I'm against this violence, sure. But when a society creates a situation like this and it is really stirring up some possibilities that we have to be aware of - to be able to prevent the violence.

zipdog• 15 years ago

If China wanted to murder a million young men, it would simply invade Taiwan.

cpeterso2• 15 years ago

War could be a "convenient" way for China to both reduce the number of young men (they are either on foreign soil or bured beneath it) and increase China's access to foreign resources. And the men most likely to be foot soldiers would probably the less educated ones.

w1ntermute6• 15 years ago

Well, if this[0] article is correct, the surplus of men is 32 million. They'd have to invade a whole lot of countries to suffer that many casualties.

0: https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/11/world/asia/11china.html

brudgers2• 15 years ago

The among the easiest solutions to a surplus of men is encouraging their emigration and would have the benefits of reducing domestic population and the improved standard of living which often accompanies remittances by expatriates.

A more likely scenario than the more romantic notion of space colonization.

redwood• 15 years ago

I think you'll see a rise in relationships between young men and older women :)

vorg• 15 years ago

They are killing the surplus men. China has one of the highest rates of male tobacco smokers in the world, but one of the lowest rates of female smokers.

kbutler• 15 years ago

Too slow to have any effect.

The average age of people diagnosed with lung cancer is 70 years old. 3% of all cases are found in people under the age of 45. (http://menshealth.about.com/od/cancer/a/lung_cancer.htm)

hammock2• 15 years ago

I wouldn't be surprised if they easily solved problem #2 by paying poor people to have more kids

They wouldn't have to pay them, all they have to do is take away the one-child policy.

m-photonic3• 15 years ago

Not really. The bulk of China's decline in birth rates can be ascribed to the same demographic cycle that all developed countries go through rather than to the one child policy. In fact the policy itself only affects a certain percentage of Chinese families in the first place.

Also, paying people to have kids hasn't done much when other countries have tried it, and I doubt China's luck will be any better.

Sudarshan• 15 years ago

I suddenly realized by accident that Chinese children do not have brothers and sisters. I mean just imagine a whole country... hundreds of millions of children... not one has a brother or a sister. Imagine a sixth of a population of the planet shudder when it hears words like "brotherly affection". Life must be so different there.

w1ntermute6• 15 years ago

It's called Little Emperor Syndrome[0]. The kids are spoiled rotten, but they also have immense pressure to succeed academically.

0: https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Little_Empero...

cpeterso2• 15 years ago

And without brothers or sisters, children won't have uncles or aunts. Family trees will be tall and narrow, not bushy.

Most developed countries are already producing children at less than replacement population rate. They will face the same situation in a couple generations.

Someone• 15 years ago

That 'not one has a brother or sister' isn't completely true. In many cases, especially in rural areas, there are families with two children, the older of which is a girl.

bryanh• 15 years ago

I've often wondering what would happen to populations if/when gerontology researchers like Aubrey de Grey do find a way to delay death from old age or even stop it completely.

Would a replacement rate of 2 just result in an ever increasing population or would other forms of death step in to limit populations? How much bigger could we expect populations to get if we had a replacement rate of 2 and an average life span of 1000 years?

I only ask because it seems China is going to be an interesting showcase of the pros and cons of population control.

rsheridan6• 15 years ago

It would result in increased population growth not just because of decreased mortality, but because of increased fertility due to the timer on the biological clock becoming less than an issue, Lots of women don't get around to having as many children as they like, especially in this era, when many people are still receiving their education and then trapped under a mortgage and student loan payments during their fertile years.

StavrosK• 15 years ago

Forced contraceptives and licenses required for bearing children, probably.

hammock2• 15 years ago

Once life expectancy is beyond child-bearing age, further increases don't affect the replacement rate.

robryan• 15 years ago

Health advances may negate some of the problem, if a 60 year old in the future is as healthy and as active as a 30 year old now no reason why they can't still be making great contributions to the workforce. In China this may be harder given how much of the work force is engaged in manual labor type positions.

The most surprising demographic crisis

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