The Draper Curve

http://kdivvela.posterous.com/im-52-years-old-so-you-cant-say-i-dont-have-a

by kdivvela • 15 years ago

30 12 15 years ago

kdivvela.posterous.com

hallowtech• 15 years ago

I wonder what the Donald Draper curve is like.

sp332• 15 years ago

A 2600 Hz sine wave! rimshot

technomancy• 15 years ago

Personally I was hoping for John Draper.

nikcub• 15 years ago

I can't think of where this holds true outside of the dotcom bubble.

For eg. the curve with social just keeps going up

zyfo• 15 years ago

The second sentence of yours hardly speaks against a hype curve. Rather the opposite, given recent valuations and the little market doubt/backlash.

enko• 15 years ago

This looks like a graphical interpretation of the well-known quote: "We tend to overestimate the short term impact of a technology and underestimate the long term impact." (Dr. Francis Collins - Director of the Human Genome Project)

alextingle• 15 years ago

Where's the historical evidence for this? Can I draw a graph like that for steam engines? The plough? Telephones?

Without that it's just an optimistic line on a whiteboard that means "there won't be another dot.com crash, this time it's to real".

mitko• 15 years ago

also, past performance is not guarantee for future success- otherwise there would be much fewer banks bankrupting.

jmount• 15 years ago

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railway_Mania

nprincigalli• 15 years ago

Better explained here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle and some examples here: http://www.floor.nl/ebiz/gartnershypecycle.htm

sloanie• 15 years ago

Was there, mans a genius. Enough said.

rogerallen• 15 years ago

Did he really claim ownership of the idea? Sounds exactly like what Moore pointed out in 1991 via "Crossing the Chasm". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossing_the_Chasm

The Draper Curve

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