How will 3D printing affect the chinese economy?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2367853

by gmatty • 15 years ago

8 10 15 years ago

news.ycombinator.com

So with the inevitability of 3D printing. Any thoughts on how that might affect the chinese economy as so many simple toys and that come from china could now be printed at ones computer for even less?

personalcompute• 15 years ago

Not less. A machine designed to do everything can never beat a single-purpose factory line. Admittedly though, they may save on time and transportation costs.

My prediction is that in order for these machines to become mainstream some companies will need to allow reproduction of their product designs first, and create a digital channel specifically for delivering the designs to consumers and their 3d printers.

yannickmahe• 15 years ago

China is slowing, but surely, going towards a service oriented economy. The stated goal of the PRC governement for their next 5-year plan was to move from 40% of the economy in services to 70%. This goal is, IMHO, attainable for China which not only has a vast higher education system, but is also following the example of Japan, Korea and Taiwan who went through the same transition.

As that will clearly decrease the need for manufacturing in China, the ability for us to print the goods they are now creating cheaply will hardly affect their economy.

ivoflipse• 15 years ago

They will always be able to do things cheaper. Because their manpower is cheaper, they will buy and sell stuff in larger quantities and produce it with their own materials (which is at the moment the costly part).

For now, unless you have a Makerbot and want ABS lego, consumers simply can't afford 3D printing their toys with commercial 3D printers. It's just like with regular printers: the ink is more expensive than the printer itself!

However, that's not to say that it will always remain that way and I can't wait for that day to come!

wladimir• 15 years ago

I don't think the production of simple toys will be affected at all by 3D printing, at least for the considerable future. Mass-production is so incredibly cost-effective for items that are all the same.

3D printing is nice for prototyping and for custom fitted, user-adapted items. This will likely remain a high-end segment for a long time. Eventually, we might be going for an economy in which every product ordered is printed and produced adapted on demand to customer's wishes, but I'm not sure how realistic that is. There will likely always be something to win by exploiting scale. Especially for low-end products.

2D printing didn't replace print shops with specialized mass-production equipment for printing books/magazines either.

DennisP• 15 years ago

That will be the case until people have 3D printers in their homes, and you can download a toy instead of buying it.

KrijgDeMeuk• 15 years ago

In that case, I WILL download a car.

haploid• 15 years ago

In the same way that inkjet printing affected the book publishing industry.

Try printing a full-length book on your desktop printer, and let me know how much the total cost of your time, the paper, and the ink is.

Compare it to the cost of a normal paperback and then note that the quality of the typesetting on your printed version sucks, and there's no cover.

znt• 15 years ago

Maybe they'll produce cheaper 3D printers and make profit again!

curt• 15 years ago

You'd be amazed at how cheap mass produced injection molded parts are, 3D printing won't ever come close to those prices. Also you're forgetting about the assembly cost which is the Chinese advantage.

Really I don't think it will change even the prototype industry much, maybe for first runs but for production models I like to select the finish, shine, paint, etc and a 3D printer just can't do that at the same cost. Even comparing turnaround time, I can get a prototype rushed from order to me in 24 hours for less than a $1000. If you're willing to wait a week, a few hundred and it looks like a factory part.

nickels• 15 years ago

I am surprised that so many here have a generally pessimistic view on 3D printing. While I am no expert in the topic - it seems like a technology that could drastically accelerate production of custom parts, simple objects, even simple machines which would require some assembly. I've read that 3D Printing kiosks will be deployed later this year in certain retail chains for ordering and pickup in a system similar to those photo kiosks at your local Walmart/Target. When the tech advances to a point where downloading build files + materials cost is comparable to the cost of transporting cheap goods from China we will see mass adoption. The cost of importing from China is heavily subsidized by cheap oil transportation fuels. That being said, I see a bright future for instafab technology and the resulting products. Future 3D designers could gain followings, build entire brands & businesses around the resulting distribution model.

How will 3D printing affect the chinese economy?

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