Unemployment Rate in U.S. stands to hit 32% says Federal Reserve

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/4/1/21201700/coronavirus-covid-19-unemployment-rate

by mmhsieh • 6 years ago

12 8 6 years ago

vox.com

zapttt• 6 years ago

why a state fed is making those predictions?

dntbnmpls• 6 years ago

[Dupe]

"Job losses could total 47M, unemployment 32%, St. Louis Fed president says"

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22730170

Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemployment rate

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22732953

kasperni• 6 years ago

Lock-down or not, people are not going to be spending any money as long as there is a worldwide health crisis.

someguy101010• 6 years ago

The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that unemployment rose to 4.4% in March [1]. The article mentions that this was a back of the envelope calculation so I'm not going to panic just yet.

[1] https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/20...

pridkett• 6 years ago

Note that the reference week in this month’s job report only went through March 12th. That was before the back to back record weeks of first time unemployment claims of 3mm and 6mm. Despite all that, the job report was still significantly worse than predicted (701k losses vs consensus of 100k losses).

Yes, this back of the envelope calculation may be a worst case, but the situation is far worse than a 4.4% unemployment rate. Look for revisions to make this even worse.

awaythrower• 6 years ago

Stagflation ahead.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/what-comes-after-coronavirus...

Get ready for 'stagflation'

https://youtu.be/6psKnT5a4Gg

Also, the US unemployment numbers are highly-politicized and manipulated. For one, they fail to account for the labor force participation rate, livable wages, employment hours desired vs. actual, having to work multiple jobs while being unable to save, or not/having healthcare.

RickJWagner• 6 years ago

I hope not. I remember stagflation from the Carter-era, it was a pretty dismal time.

rdtwo• 6 years ago

CBO estimate was 10% that’s probably conservatively low but still not in the range of 32.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56314

Unemployment Rate in U.S. stands to hit 32% says Federal Reserve

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