A call to honesty in pandemic modeling

https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b

by pjrule • 6 years ago

28 4 6 years ago

jlbnjmn• 6 years ago

We are entering a new era. We need honesty, integrity, and humility. We need to lower our expectations of others and raise our own standards instead. We can no longer pretend that the hard things are someone else's responsibility.

Right now we're stuck with academics creating models that attempt to predict outcomes.

We need pandemic models that give us insight into how we can gain leverage over those outcomes.

That means assumptions, variables, long term forecasts, and short term checkpoints for testing and recalibrating the assumptions.

Many of the decision makers and influencers of the world are still in sport mode.

Which is why this is probably going to look a lot more like war.

micahjm• 6 years ago

Thanks for sharing

lern_too_spel• 6 years ago

If in four months, we have readily-available fast tests and plentiful masks, it is possible to end the heavy-handed mitigations and follow the model of the East Asian countries that have already brought the disease under control.

dba7dba• 6 years ago

https://youtu.be/gAk7aX5hksU This interview was quite helpful.

A call to honesty in pandemic modeling

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