Ask HN: The Effects of the New Bubble

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2231503

by calebhicks • 15 years ago

2 1 15 years ago

news.ycombinator.com

There are dozens of stories pointing to a growing bubble in startupland, especially in Silicon Valley. Many of the stories have been on the HN homepage the last couple of days.

My question is, what effect will this have on the economy at-large? With most of the bubble investing happening in VCs and other private investments, how will this affect the public markets?

knowsnothing613• 15 years ago

It'll be a neglible effect. The startup bubble will only hurt angels/VCs who continue to dump money into shitty/me2 companies, so they can collect their 10% management fees.

The real bubble is in commodities. All the extra $$$ the Fed is pumping into the US economy is leaking into the emerging markets, where banks can get a better ROI on their bets, instead of investing in US small businesses.

This asymmetry between the stagnant developed economies, and the bustling emerging markets may lead to global stagflation, from high inflation, and high unemployment.

The effects will be increasing political instability throughout North Africa/Middle East, that could enter Europe visa via her large North African diaspora.

Also, China may have to take greater action curbing its money supply, which could push the all resource-centric countries (Chile/Australia/Canada) into recession.

The solution is to incentivize big banks to give out more loans to small US business, which make up the bulk of US employment, instead of making abstracted bets on financial instruments.

The American financial system is broken, and with it American capitalism, because capital isn't reaching the most product parts of the economy. Rather, it's going to lucrative, short term bets, that may be unproductive for the economy in the LONG run.

Ask HN: The Effects of the New Bubble

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