CoronaVirus – FAQ, misconceptions, information, from a statistical perspective

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/exe552/coronavirus_faq_misconceptions_information_from_a/

by 9nGQluzmnq3M • 6 years ago

9 1 6 years ago

topmonk• 6 years ago

Most important point, as far as I'm concerned:

Ok so - definitely, the death count is too low. We all agree there. But before you freak out, there's a bright spot. We CAN also put an upper bound with a fair amount of certainty on the general death rate. How? Because there have been enough cases reported globally already, and enough data from the patients OUTSIDE of China, that we can tell the death rate is NOT anywhere near 10% with a strong degree of certainty (many patients have recovered, and are just awaiting the viral test all-clear before they can be discharged. Most other patients are in stable and recovering condition).

So we don't know, from the China data, whether the fatality rate is 0.5% or 1% or 2% or 3%... but we can be FAIRLY sure it's not 5% and definitely not above that. Simply because otherwise we'd already see the mortality in International cases, and that's outside of Chinese control.

Of course, this assumes access to a hospital, so if they get overwhelmed, I would expect the death rate to be higher, but unsure of how much.

CoronaVirus – FAQ, misconceptions, information, from a statistical perspective

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