Not just luck and talent: "positioning"

http://michaelrwolfe.posterous.com/not-luck-not-talent-but-positioning

by rafaelc • 16 years ago

42 9 16 years ago

michaelrwolfe.posterous.com

pprov• 16 years ago

Sounds a lot like Heinlein's rules for writing. http://www.sfwriter.com/ow05.htm

bigiain• 16 years ago

And "I find the harder I work, the luckier I am." – Thomas Jefferson

Create• 16 years ago

Did he tell this to his slaves?

lionhearted• 16 years ago

Totally agree, really good article.

You know, when you look at history and say "this person/side was lucky to win", I'm not so sure that's the case. With adequate preparation and enough attention to detail and caution, you're very likely to have a mild/medium success even if you don't completely break out.

For instance -

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Date_Masamune

Masamune fought on the winning side in the final part of the Japanese Sengoku Warrring States Era. Sekigahara turned out to be the decisive battle, and after that, the Western Forces were never a serious threat to the Eastern Forces.

Tokugawa, the leader of the Eastern Forces, then had a very stable, consistent government that ruled for 250 years of relative peace.

However, if Sekigahara goes differently, or Tokugawa Ieyasu misgoverns or dies younger, then perhaps Date Masamune becomes the final unifier of Japan. He put himself into a position where, if the opportunity arose, he could have done it.

The opportunity didn't arise, and instead he wound up founding Sendai, one of the most beautiful cities in Japan, developing the local land a lot, and opening up diplomatic missions with Europe. He put himself in a position to be massively successful if the opportunity came for it. It didn't, but he still wound up quite successful and is well-respected to this day, and his family governed a pleasant, stable area for a long time in peace and prosperity.

Positioning, indeed.

nazgulnarsil• 16 years ago

smart optimization involves pruning the decision tree such that all remaining branches lead to victory.

tobtoh• 16 years ago

Is that someone elses quote, or did you come up with that yourself? Either way - I like it!

turbodog• 16 years ago

A nice article, yes, and +1 for mostly being about cyclocross. I presume the author isn't the guy bunny hopping barriers on the MTB...

Mz• 16 years ago

I would add that if you happen to find yourself in some uniquely valuable position, the ability to recognize that and act on it is enormously powerful.

dangoldin• 16 years ago

Reminded me of the quote attributed to Seneca - "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity."

Not just luck and talent: "positioning"

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