Global sea-level rise could be double our current predictions

https://www.technologyreview.com/f/613561/global-sea-level-rise-could-be-double-our-current-predictions

by gfmio • 7 years ago

42 8 7 years ago

From the report:

For a +2 °C temperature scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement, we obtain a median estimate of a 26 cm SLR contribution by 2100, with a 95th percentile value of 81 cm. For a +5 °C temperature scenario more consistent with unchecked emissions growth, the corresponding values are 51 and 178 cm, respectively. Inclusion of thermal expansion and glacier contributions results in a global total SLR estimate that exceeds 2 m at the 95th percentile.

agentultra• 7 years ago

Ignorant, uninformed question: are insurance actuaries managing mortgages and properties following these updates? What is going to happen to families with land in areas that are going to be permanantly flooded in 10, 20, 30 years? Do we even have a plan for that?

thfuran• 7 years ago

And ~~where should I buy my house today to get a good deal on tomorrow's beachfront property?~~ how long until this starts having interesting effects on real estate prices?

opportune• 7 years ago

I think it's impossible to say, since if you were off by a single foot your property would be effectively worthless

I believe sea level rise is already beginning to slow down the housing market in Miami

sjf• 7 years ago

I can't answer your question, but what will happen to the property market after sea level rise is a central part of Kim Stanley Robinson's book New York 2140. It is fascinating and I can highly recommend it.

ergothus• 7 years ago

following these updates?

Follow up from someone likewise uninformed: do they have an escape clause that means they can avoid paying out (act of God, etc) meaning that no one is actually directly accountable?

challenger22• 7 years ago

Interesting bit: during a press event recently, Warren Buffett was asked whether increasing climate-related catastrophes would hurt the insurance companies in his portfolio. The answer was, to paraphrase, that they would help the companies more than hurt them. Even in a particular year that has unforeseen high levels of disaster, the companies will quickly update their risk models and increase their premiums, essentially bringing in the same margins as before on a larger risk pool = more profit.

alwaysanagenda• 7 years ago

Global sea-level rise, according to previous predictions, which are now certainly incorrect, could be twice as severe, according to our new predictions, which may also be incorrect.

https://www.apnews.com/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0

Global sea-level rise could be double our current predictions

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