HTML5, Flash and Silverlight. Which one is dead?

http://blog.scratchaudio.com/2010/11/html5-flash-silverlight-which-one-is-dead/

by herbrandson • 16 years ago

16 24 16 years ago

blog.scratchaudio.com

devmonk2• 16 years ago

It might still be used heavily, but Microsoft has stated that they will be investing more fully in HTML5. Silverlight won't last.

arethuza• 16 years ago

It might survive if Windows Phone 7 is a big success, but I don't think I'd go betting on that...

TomOfTTB2• 16 years ago

Microsoft is being foolish about Silverlight so you might be right but on the facts themselves you are just wrong.

HTML5 has gotten to the point where I think we can safely assume there won't be major new features added. Meaning HTML5 won't be able to...

- Record audio and video

- Support advanced video features like overlays

- Support pay media features like tracking, DRM, etc...

- Support out of browser experience (though I suppose each browser could implement this)

- Support multi-threading (though I suppose each browser could implement this)

- and others I can't think of off the top of my head

So either Flash or Silverlight will still have a future long after everyone's using HTML 5 based browsers. The question is whether Microsoft can capitalize on Flash's diminishing position and use successes like Netflix to supplant Adobe.

(Which is why I said Microsoft is being stupid by not giving Silverlight more support)

chopsueyar• 16 years ago

Stream live video?

Synchronize javascript events to keyframes in the video?

devmonk2• 16 years ago

http://arstechnica.com/microsoft/news/2010/11/silverlight-ht...

Mentioned in: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1867130

http://www.zdnet.com/blog/microsoft/microsoft-our-strategy-w...

And read the comments in:

http://team.silverlight.net/announcement/the-future-of-silve...

sgrove• 16 years ago

A few points:

I'm not sure what you mean by "Record audio and video", but there is a device access API for webapps to get to webcams, mics, video game controllers, etc.

Mozilla's audio api also allows Javascript to generate raw audio data, and I expect (well, certainly hope) that this will be adopted by the other browsers as well.

Video overlays - I'm not sure what you meant since there are a few different terms like this. If you mean routing the video data in a certain way, you're right, I don't see that happening. If you mean overlaying one video on top of another (or anything like that), that's already possible - check out http://html5doctor.com/video-canvas-magic/

The rest of it you may be right. DRM will have to be browser-specific, and it's likely to fit in at all with an OSS project. Multi-threading seems like it would likely require a change to the Javascript implementations.

noglorp• 16 years ago

What do you mean "there won't be major new features added"? They still haven't fleshed out the <device> tag yet! And there is plenty more in the works... hopefully Mozilla's audio work will become standard.

yardie• 16 years ago

Probably Flash.

* HTML5 has widespread support amongst all new browsers and mobile platforms.

* Silverlight will probably move on to embedded corporate applications or atleast that is how microsoft has described it. Plus they have the funds to bankroll it for a decade. One thing about Microsoft, either they kill it early or kill it very late. There are some platforms that have lived long past everyone forgetting they ever existed.

* Flash is going to be fighting a shrinking pie of mindshare. It won't happen right away but once it reaches a tipping point these things go really fast.

So the question should be which is dead first?

bad_user• 16 years ago

http://www.google.com/trends?q=adobe+flash,+microsoft+silver...

zdw2• 16 years ago

Flash should have died years ago.

I do work with blind people, and a Flash site is a smack in the face to them. They most commonly access the web the same way Google would - as text.

Yes, you can make Flash that supports accessibility, but in practice nobody does this - they really don't care about anyone using their only available alternate method of viewing the web.

watty• 16 years ago

I'm not even aware of how to support blind accessibility in Flash but if it does have adequate support, how can you blame the platform and not the developers? It's like blaming Flash for making advertisements too easy to create.

zdw2• 16 years ago

To use an analogy, let's say you had two programming languages:

- Language A has very poor support for unit testing and requires that you put a lot of extra effort in to do it

- Language B supports unit testing out of the box, and supports automatically generating stub code for the tests.

All things being equal, which setup do you think will lead to more unit testing, and by extension a higher quality/more maintainable product?

(I use unit testing here as it's something that is often unseen but useful, much like accessibility)

Tools are not solely to blame for poor craftsmanship, but they can greatly contribute to it.

poppysan• 16 years ago

Flash is accessible -- unless devs dont use it properly. My problem with the flash debate is that terrible developers are the root of nearly every issue, not the language...

kj12345• 16 years ago

Yeah the whole issue is being talked about in a very bizarre way. If Flash were really just dying, no one would be talking about it (see JavaFX). If Flash/Flex were simply not accessible, there would be a push to get better accessibility support. (For the record Flex, at least, does have fairly solid accessibility support: http://www.adobe.com/accessibility/products/flex/overview.ht... )

Instead what I think is going on is that there's a big pushback against Adobe for failing to develop and open up the platform, and this anger at Adobe is being worded as analysis.

extension• 16 years ago

It is a huge waste to build a such large piece of software on a platform with so little life remaining and that is already so crippled. That 75% install base is only going to go down and already the coolest people and devices can't use your app.

If you're going to make something as progressive as a web-based DAW, make sure it has a future, even if it's not quite ready for the present.

gabrielroth• 16 years ago

This. Skate to where the puck is going to be—especially if you're making something cool and ambitious. Take your best guess as to what the installed base for Flash, Silverlight and HTML5 will look like in two years. Two years! An eyeblink!

I think the word 'dead' can be confusing, because the hackery meaning differs from the ordinary meaning so much. None of those technologies is 'dead' in the sense of 'defunct.' But 'dead' meaning 'on a road whose only endpoint is obsolescence'—I'm gonna say Silverlight and Flash are dead.

OmniBus• 16 years ago

Every software will be obsoleted eventually. Software will evolve into another piece. But it is long time to go.

Full Standard implemented by vendors takes exceptional long time. It is very frustrating. Developers have to deal with numerous compatibility issues. So it is too early to say either Silverlight or Flash is dead.

Even if there is a mature JavaScript library and framework that comparable to existing Silverlight and Flash. It still takes long time to change. Companies and developers investing heavily on one technology will not adapt new technology very soon, considering that large base of existing software, human talents relies on that technology.

jstein1• 16 years ago

flash...no question

deadmansshoes• 16 years ago

In the example there is one technology briefly reffered to and then ignored - desktop apps. For recording and editing music why limit yourself to a browser or browser plug-in?

herbrandson• 16 years ago

There are so many desktop DAW's out there that we felt we needed something unique about us in order to compete. Our site focuses on a cloud based experience. The goal is to make collaboration and sharing really easy.

simonw• 16 years ago

tldr: "Silverlight isn't dead", claims developer who bet the farm on Silverlight

GrandMasterBirt• 16 years ago

Currently on linux. Can't play most silverlight content. Sorry homie.

HTML5, Flash and Silverlight. Which one is dead?

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