Ancient data, modern math and the hunt for lost cities of the Bronze Age

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/11/13/ancient-data-modern-math-and-the-hunt-for-11-lost-cities-of-the-bronze-age/?utm_term=.b1f032736e46

by Ftuuky • 9 years ago

125 21 9 years ago

washingtonpost.com

dogruck3• 9 years ago

Wow, so interesting. TIL that we have 10s of thousands of 4,000 year old clay tablets. What a data set!

This was the only downer of the article:

As a final check, the authors ran the model against the location of known ancient cities to see whether its results matched the actual archaeological record.
One (sic) two out of three of the known cities they tested against, the model nailed it. But it whiffed on the third.

2/3 is a bit troubling.

GalacticDomin8r2• 9 years ago

As well known, 2/3 ain't bad.

dogruck3• 9 years ago

I think of it this way:

1. Suppose we tested on 1 datum and got 0/1. Not good.

2. How about just 2? 1/2. Hmm.. coin flip.

3. Ok, let’s do 3. 2/3. Well, better than half but it’s easy to get 2 heads on 3 coin flips.

4. ....

tryingagainbro2• 9 years ago

we have 10s of thousands of 4,000 year old clay tablets. What a data set!

Year 6017: we have 10s of thousands of 4,000 year old https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floppy_disk . Hhmmmm...

contingencies2• 9 years ago

Floppies from the 1980s/1990s are already magnetically degraded to the point of unusable, in most cases. (Source: Recent 2017 attempt to archive remnant data from period storage media before donating hardware to a museum)

kobeya2• 9 years ago

Mesopotamian studies is really interesting. There's a lot of intact records from archives that were found in the basements or lower levels of buildings that were destroyed in fires -- clay tablets only break under the most intense heat.

Most are administrative records, but as TFA shows even these can be incredibly interesting. Only a small percentage have been translated -- there's not that many people with the diligence to learn cuneiform! But if you want to go to Oxford and spend 5-10 years learning ancient dialects and writing systems, it could be quite rewarding.

spynxic• 9 years ago

But if you want to go to Oxford and spend 5-10 years learning ancient dialects and writing systems, it could be quite rewarding.

What of an online course?

peterburkimsher• 9 years ago

If you'd like to do some machine learning projects on it, here's where to get the data:

Machine assisted translation of cuneiform texts

https://cdli.ucla.edu/?q=news/machine-assisted-translation-c...

perseusprime11• 9 years ago

Are the models using logistic regression? I’ve seen logistic regression models end up in 60-70% accuracy band while deep neural network models end up in 80-90% with such data sets

yiyus• 9 years ago

If you have a look at the paper (figure 12), although the actual location of some cities lie outside the predicted confidence regions, the model gives a pretty good hint of where they are.

It is easy to see how the study could be followed adding other factors such as geographical data, or the goods that are traded between different regions. But still, this simple model gives a very good estimation.

I may be wrong, archaeology is not my field, but I'd guess 2/3 is a high probability by their standards. I do not think they usually have so many chances when they start digging.

KasianFranks2• 9 years ago

Cryptography and data mining/science (ML/AI) have their roots in the study of Epigraphy https://www.google.com/search?q=epigraphy Combined, they enable the process of discovery, new hypothesis generation which in turn can lead to new inventions and cures e.g. extending human lifespan which also happens to be the only way humans will make it to other habitable planets http://www.eso.org/public/news/eso1736/

pavel_lishin• 9 years ago

extending human lifespan which also happens to be the only way humans will make it to other habitable planets

[citation needed]

What about hibernation technology? Digital upload? FTL travel?

I know the last two seem vastly more fantastical than the first, or than age extension, but it seems odd to announce flatly that something is The One And Only Way.

KasianFranks2• 9 years ago

Got another way?

Ancient data, modern math and the hunt for lost cities of the Bronze Age

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