By 2040, computers will need more electricity than the world can generate

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/07/25/semiconductor_industry_association_international_technology_roadmap_for_semiconductors/?mt=1469441767043

by ghosh • 10 years ago

23 21 10 years ago

theregister.co.uk

nhebb2• 10 years ago

The Joules/year on the graph is a flat line from now to 2040. It ought to read "does generate" instead of "can generate'.

JosephRedfern• 10 years ago

It isn't a flat line: http://i.imgur.com/oTUC2Nf.jpg. The black bar I added is flat.

nhebb2• 10 years ago

Fair enough, but that's still "projected to generate" not "can generate".

kahrkunne• 10 years ago

We'd probably increase power production before that point, methinks

_nalply2• 10 years ago

Or reduce power consumption.

coldtea3• 10 years ago

Or reduce computers...

samjohnson• 10 years ago

Why is the world's energy production a constant value from 2010 to 2040? Surely we produce more energy today than we did 30 years ago. Is this just a chart scale issue?

IshKebab• 10 years ago

It's not constant, and the scale is logarithmic.

That said I think this prediction is really insane and goes against common sense.

hexomancer• 10 years ago

What?! A constant in logarithmic scale is still a constant.

_nalply2• 10 years ago

As pointed out by JosephRedfern, the production line is not exactly flat but has a very slight grade (http://i.imgur.com/oTUC2Nf.jpg). This means they postulate an increase in production.

coldtea3• 10 years ago

Why is the world's energy production a constant value from 2010 to 2040? Surely we produce more energy today than we did 30 years ago.

Not that much compared to the change in computers from 30 years ago.

dharma1• 10 years ago

A human brain runs on 20W. I think we have a lot of work ahead of us

jlmendezbonini• 10 years ago

So a typical adult human brain runs on around 12 watts

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/thinking-hard-calo...

danmaz74• 10 years ago

I always find it funny when projections decades into the future show straight lines. Even more so when the scale is logarithmic.

dottedmag• 10 years ago

Obligatory URL: https://xkcd.com/605/

yaantc• 10 years ago

I agree with the general sentiment, but their point here (as I understand it) is to show that the current trend cannot continue like this. The source paper has a poor choice of word in an appendix, saying "when the energy required for computing will exceed the estimated world’s energy production" with "will" instead of "would", but it's clear from the text they don't believe this. The next sentence is: "Thus, radical improvement in the energy efficiency of computing is needed".

traverseda• 10 years ago

Thus, radical improvement in the energy efficiency of computing is needed

Isn't that what all these new arm boards are?

eternalban• 10 years ago

Reversible computing[1][2]. & I most highly recommend this fantastic lecture on the Physics of Computing:https://youtu.be/OEzuZ6BpC-g

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reversible_computing

https://youtu.be/qPgveUgK8P4

jakozaur• 10 years ago

In 1894, the Times of London estimated that by 1950 every street in the city would be buried nine feet deep in horse manure.

By 2040, computers will need more electricity than the world can generate

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