Today’s Brexit Likelihood Score

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/

by yread • 10 years ago

36 60 10 years ago

sarreph2• 10 years ago

I love Bloomberg's flair and talent when it comes to producing rich articles that feel like true web-based projects. In this story, for example, the way a single star falls from the EU crest at the top, and also how the cursor X-axis position acts as a guide for the marker on all charts on the page.

However, one chart I take a (small) issue with is their "Today’s Brexit Likelihood Score" chart — surely it is much more intuitive to have the blue ('remain') bar filling up the inverse of what they're currently drawing? I.e. 76.27% filled

colinramsay• 10 years ago

I came here to say this. It's incredibly confusing to the point where I wonder if it's a mistake or bug.

sarreph2• 10 years ago

Yeah, but what makes me think it is a mistake is that they are focussing on a '23% chance of Brexit' figure, using the same blue as the chart line. So perhaps what they really ought to do is just swap the line around.

morsch• 10 years ago

Maybe the color is supposed to reflect the result? It's blue now; if the polls were reversed it'd be red. It'd be much less confusing if they dropped the two dog icons and their labels.

FedexNOLLY• 10 years ago

nice

Kenji• 10 years ago

It's funny how one might think that being in the EU is voluntary, but as it seems, a country cannot get out, or really, regain any sovereignty, for fear of economic problems. That is like saying "I cannot leave this abusive relationship because I will be lonely and heartbroken." and continue to get punched and scratched every day.

lmm• 10 years ago

Not really - I mean we always have the option to e.g. set all the country's hospitals on fire. It would just be a bad idea. Doesn't mean we "don't control our own hospitals"

gambiting5• 10 years ago

If you are in a relationship with someone and you share rent for a flat, breaking up with them would mean that now you live on your own and have to pay 2x as much. It's a serious economic concern, because it might cripple you financially, at least until you find another roommate or move.

But, that doesn't mean that you are not free to break up with someone. You just have to be an adult about it and live with the consequences.

arrrg• 10 years ago

I mean, there is a more subtle point right there.

In actual abusive relationships this interdependency is one of the important factors that keeps the abused in the relationship. It’s one of the things that makes abusive relationships so hard to escape and consequently so horrific.

That said, interdependency is also just as much a part of non-abusive and completely healthy relationships, i.e. the mere existence of interdependency doesn’t decide whether a relationship is abusive or not.

To me the EU and UK relationship is a clearly non-abusive one. I wouldn’t call it healthy, but mostly because the UK is frequently completely disengaged from the process and disinterested in actually being part of the relationship. They could have so much say and power … but they don’t want to. Rather they want to spend all their time worrying and drawing up horror scenarios.

I do not want the UK to leave, but I also don’t think that a UK this disengaged is not very productive to have inside the EU.

viraptor7• 10 years ago

It's a relative situation though. The countries that exit would have worse economy than before the exit. But that's simply because they would likely have a worse economy if they never joined in the first place. Also, some temporary extra issues have to be expected - there's a lot of changes that will take some time after the exit. (at least rebalancing import-export partners)

adav2• 10 years ago

The countries that exit would have worse economy than before the exit.

Why is that guaranteed? I'd imagine that the argument can be made in both directions.

darka• 10 years ago

It is a voluntary relationship, but both parties have stakes in it and provide certain benefits and possibly some negatives to each other. That's how every relationship works and that doesn't make it abusive.

monk_e_boy4• 10 years ago

Should we stay or should we go? No one seems to have a clear idea. But the UK is full of middle aged and the older generation who are scared shitless of change. The younger generation (18 - 35) aren't in a position where the EU membership effects them in any tangible way. So we'll end up staying for the wrong reason. Fear.

Where I live we get a metric shit tonne of EU funding, but I assume that if we left, the funding would just come from the government. Or we'd get none. Who knows? Who knows if the EU funding will dry up if we stay? We are so powerless it is unreal.

gambiting5• 10 years ago

I get the exact opposite impression. The older generation doesn't give a crap about EU, it's not affecting them or their jobs in any way. They are the ones influenced most by the scaremongering of the media. It's the younger people who know that they will lose friends and jobs if Britain leaves, they are connected in the world and understand that implications for the people around them.

monk_e_boy4• 10 years ago

Maybe it's different in cities? I can't talk for those people, but in the smaller towns and villages no one really cares much about our government, let alone the EU. Hackernews audience is a different set of people to those Sun and Daily Mail readers.

bshimmin• 10 years ago

From speaking to people both 18-35 and in older age brackets, I've actually found it's the opposite - the younger generation is relatively impassioned about staying (or mostly indifferent but can't really see why we would leave), and older generations are much more on the fence. In fact, I don't know anyone under 35 who is in favour of Brexit. The older generations, however, start talking about their distrust of Europe, of Germany in particular, and seem to have some vestigial jingoistic pride and feel that Britain is still, or at least can be again, a great nation which can manage perfectly well by itself, thank you very much.

(Obviously I've not canvassed everyone in Britain - just about ten or fifteen people I know reasonably well.)

s_kilk• 10 years ago

I've observed the same, it's mostly the late-middle-aged xenophobes who are in favour of leaving.

ed_blackburn2• 10 years ago

This is an exact mirror of my experience. I know one person under 35 wishes to leave.

Anyone I speak to over 50 is desperate to leave because they perceive the shared sovereignty as redline that should never be crossed irrespective of the consequences.

Nuances between EU, EEC, Council of Europe, European Court of Human Rights and how leaving the EU does not mean extraditing ourselves from the others, thus stymieing the sovereignty issue so that it is mute is completely lost. We may leave the EU and still be subordinate to the other bodies (including most EU rules to maintain trade compatibility) making the entire exercise a dangerous experiment.

viraptor7• 10 years ago

The younger generation (18 - 35) aren't in a position where the EU membership effects them in any tangible way

You mean the age group which actually travels, studies abroad, looks for new jobs which right now they can choose from all over the EU, has more international contacts than previous generations, etc. ? I'm sure they're more affected in very practical ways than older generations.

I'm affected in at least 3 ways, and I'm not even in Europe anymore.

gadders• 10 years ago

Or the group that doesn't remember life before the EU.

devnull7911013• 10 years ago

its also the generation with the lowest cost of travel and highest disposable income. their ability to travel won't be affected by leaving the eu.

monk_e_boy4• 10 years ago

the age group which actually travels, studies abroad, looks for new jobs which right now they can choose from all over the EU, has more international contacts than previous generations

Oh yeah, rich people stuff.

I don't know many people who've done that. I know one guy who left for the USA, I know one or two older people who go on a regular holiday out of the UK each year. 90% of my friends have been abroad once or twice, but it's not an influence on their current EU debate.

vixen99• 10 years ago

"[Older] Scared shitless of change"? Evidence? Judging by the Observer's online poll - April 2016, results show that those aged 55 years old and over were more in favour of a Brexit with 54%, compared to 30% that wanted to remain part of the EU.

raverbashing2• 10 years ago

It seems your post symbolizes everything that's wrong with most people, they don't know crap about EU 101 and pretty much don't want to

The younger generation (18 - 35) aren't in a position where the EU membership effects them in any tangible way

I'll take that as a joke or as proof that a lot of people have no idea on what they're talking about.

monk_e_boy4• 10 years ago

Hackernews has a different audience to 99% of real people. Talk to a plumber or an electrician under 35 and ask them about the EU. No clue.

philh2• 10 years ago

I'm more inclined to trust bookmakers than polls. http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-refe...

Currently, the best odds you can get for 'stay' are 4:9, and the best odds for 'leave' are 21:10, which suggests odds of about 2:1 for staying, i.e. Bloomberg is overconfident.

corin_3• 10 years ago

Sure, after last year we definitely don't want to be too eager to assume that pollsters know what's coming in the UK, and if they fail as spectacularly as in the GE then certainly the bookies may prove to have been more accurate, but then so could me picking chance percentages out of the air and telling people they're my predictions.

What makes you think either the bookies or the punters have any clue what accurate pricing would be for that market?

dageshi2• 10 years ago

As a counterpoint, referendums should be a lot easier to poll than a general election where FPTP makes things much more complicated. I would think comparing this referendum to the Scottish referendum would be the better comparison.

philh2• 10 years ago

The bookies' entire business model is to have a better clue than anyone else about what the accurate pricing would be. If they fail at that, they don't stay in business for very long.

secfirstmd• 10 years ago

I really wish Intrade.com was still active...It was very flawed in many ways but for some big events (like US elections and its management) it was often extremely accurate.

elcapitan• 10 years ago

But the betting odds are not a mere representation of a probability or of the popular perception of one? They also involve the bookmaker trying to attract money on both sides of the line, at least that's my understanding of how they work.

harel3• 10 years ago

This approach should be taken by both camps. By that I mean, use actual real data to drive their point. At the moment all we get from both sides us emotional opinions and speculation without a single data point to back it up. I am on the fence regarding the eu (and I'm both British and European nationality wise). I want to be persuaded this way or the other but not by emotions. I want cold hard facts and analysis. And I'm getting none of that.

blfr• 10 years ago

But the interesting argument is whether Britian would benefit in the long term from leaving the EU. This is not addressed by the chance of brexit happening, polling, or currency value over a couple of months.

This whole "we looked at the data and what we found surprised us" almost never answers any interesting questions or generates lasting insights.

ed_blackburn2• 10 years ago

Absolutely. It's a head vs heart debate. I understand the heart bit. But the head bit seems open-and-shut to me (remain). I've yet to see a convincing argument to leave that doesn't lead with heart (immigration and the UK innate supremacy over Europe).

There is a distinct lack of facts from both camps.

harel3• 10 years ago

For me its the opposite. My heart wants to stay, my head resists. To (maybe badly) put it in code, its like a great interface provided by this wonderful company people like to love, but the practical implementations of that interface are so lacking it looks bad on the interface itself.

dageshi2• 10 years ago

There aren't any, it all depends on what kind of deal we'd get after we left and the EU isn't going to pre-negotiate something like that for a host of reasons. I am pro leaving, but I certainly expect a period of turbulence after we leave that'll likely last at least 2-5 years and will probably dampen growth somewhat, but I'm sure we will adapt.

jimmytidey• 10 years ago

What if it is intrinsically a value-based choice?

The empirical evidence is all weak and marginal, this kind of thing doesn't happen often. What will happen to trade? Nobody knows, but if we leave certainly trade agreements will be struck, so it might remain similar.

What will it do to immigration? Nobody knows, but there probably won't be a massive change either way.

I want to stay in the EU, because I like European ideals, and because in the long run, I think the only way for Britain to defend its geopolitical interests is to coordinate with Europe. I think remaining in the EU is a step toward that, though not necessary or sufficient. I think it's also a diffusion of power, away from Britain's elite controlled media and financial sector.

If you are more to the political right, I guess you'll think exactly the opposite.

I don't think any empirical evidence is likely to be produced that will inform these types of concerns.

peteretep• 10 years ago

You're not getting cold hard facts because nobody has any, because nobody can predict the future.

That said: the Americans want them to stay in, and that's not out of a sense of nostalgia or jingoism. That's a fact, and it's one worth pondering.

harel3• 10 years ago

We might not have facts, but like Bloomberg could magic those numbers out of some form of data collection, polling, modelling etc, both camps can produce models of their own. At this point I'll take anything that qualifies as some form of science-based-approach to the question. If I want emotions - I have plenty of my own regarding then matter and they are still conflicting even within me.

adwf• 10 years ago

There are no cold, hard facts, no-one has ever left the EU before. We literally have no way of knowing what will happen if we leave.

The only hard fact we have is that we know what we've got now and how it works.

pdkl95• 10 years ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMk6aVsl8Rs#t=66

If you're interested in this topic, I recommend this discussion with (pragmatic) economist Mark Blyth and Yanis Varoufakis. They talk about brexit, Greece, and what it will take to fix the economic mess in the EU.

Overtonwindow• 10 years ago

Given the British' press ability to predict the last elections and political outcomes, I remind everyone that nothing is set until the votes are tallied. This article really gives us nothing but a snapshot that is probably already outdated.

Today’s Brexit Likelihood Score

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