[video] Why you shouldn’t trust successful people’s advice

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1k7jeQQdqPA

by FabianBeiner • 10 years ago

68 28 10 years ago

kqr• 10 years ago

I've always found the story about the British bomber airplanes during world war two to be a powerful illustration of this. When the bomber airplanes returned from Germany, some were quite badly shot up. They were riled with bullet holes in the tail and wings. In the interest of ensuring more successful bombing runs, the air force naturally wanted to put more armour on these parts that were always so badly shot up.

...but that's not going to do any good. Airplanes that are shot in the tail quite obviously are able to complete their mission and return home, since you're able to observe them.

The airplanes that had bullet holes all over their cockpit never returned. This is where the extra armour is needed.

pella2• 10 years ago

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2010/09/counterintuiti...

or : http://people.ucsc.edu/~msmangel/Wald.pdf

nickik2• 10 years ago

That a similar story with helmets in WW1. After they introduced helmets the amount of people with head wounds skyrocketed. So they wanted to remove helmets again.

Vaskivo• 10 years ago

There's a a theory that says the increased feeling of safety makes us act more recklessly.

OJFord• 10 years ago

It's funny you say that - perhaps it's at the back of your mind after reading it somewhere - but spend the money reinforcing the still covered areas, and fly with gaping holes elsewhere is exactly what they did do.

theoh• 10 years ago

The version I've heard is that it was the engines, not the cockpit, that were found to be the point of relative vulnerability. It's a less direct example of "survivorship".

In any case, the guy who is remembered for this insight is Abraham Wald.

Udo• 10 years ago

I saw a documentary about the company behind Minecraft, and when they interviewed the owner about what kind of advice he would give to a game developer starting out, he replied: "don't listen to advice". I became an instant fan.

When I was running my startup about 15 years ago, I totally subscribed to the "never give up" mantras, and other myths about success. I read everything there was to know about the titans of the software industry, and how many of them managed to become successful after stretches of adversity.

This caused me to become very unreasonable and eventually drove the company into bankruptcy. I ended up with a lot of debt that I never really recovered from. Had I instead tried to connect to people who had failed before, I might have learned things that are actually valuable, such as what the warning signs of impending doom are, how to judge your prospects realistically, and when not to put your personal fortune on the line.

Instead, in a delusional rush to compare myself with highly successful people, I ignored how even in adversity they had a lot of things going for them that I and my company simply never had in the first place.

Lanari• 10 years ago

Don't trust unsuccessful people too, they always assume that what they did was wrong and the opposite is right.

I know a lot of successful people who did the opposite of what others did, and both of them succeed.

agumonkey• 10 years ago

Depends, if that person keeps trying (different strategies, not failing the same way), it's a lesson in patience and courage.

pella2• 10 years ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias

Htsthbjig• 10 years ago

I know lots of successful people.

IMHO You should not trust successful people advice more than unsuccessful people in general, but TRUST WHAT THEY DO.

I remember when I was young(16 or so) and wanted to learn from the best men with the girls. There were men that were really great at dating the most gorgeous women.

I approached them and asked. What they told me was generic and non sense. But I started going out with them and doing what they did and man, what a change!. I got to be as good as them or better(I am naturally athletic and tall but before I met them I was average with women, I discovered for example that being smart and intelligent(geek) could be the most attractive thing ever for a women, but the smartest people use to be unattractive to women because they don't know how ).

I discovered that most people good with women were "naturals", they did not learn it, but for some other reasons they had acquired the abilities that made them great.

They can't teach anything because they are not really conscious of what makes them different. For them, it is completely natural, the way it should be.

The same happens in business. These people has a completely different mindset from the rest of the world but for them the world is that way. They are not conscious and can't teach you.

The way to learn is to live with them, not to do what they say, but do what they do.

charlesism• 10 years ago

I don't see the connection with the video, which was a nice explanation of "survival bias." Not sure I agree that your love life has much to do with business, either.

rpedela• 10 years ago

I think he is saying that people who are naturally good at something (successful) don't really know why they are good and therefore cannot teach others (give advice).

ogreveins• 10 years ago

Ignore the love life, it's just a vehicle for the idea. Focus on the meaning.

austinjp• 10 years ago

As others have pointed out, perhaps it's the less-successful who offer the valuable lessons. Fortunately some of their stories are available, and make interesting reading:

http://autopsy.io/

https://hn.algolia.com/?query=post%20mortem&sort=byDate&pref...

kelukelugames• 10 years ago

Never take dating advice from taller, better looking men.

hitekker2• 10 years ago

This is an interesting way to put survivorship bias into perspective. At least for normal looking fellows.

stuxnet79• 10 years ago

It really is. I believe I have been doing this for the past couple of months. Thanks for the insight.

CuriouslyC• 10 years ago

In my experience, the people you should look to for advice are the ones that succeeded despite lots of disadvantages, particularly those people who have succeeded repeatedly in very different areas.

Often the people who succeed most spectacularly are either very gifted or lucky. It is pretty rare for someone to be gifted/lucky in many different areas.

childifchaos2• 10 years ago

Absolutely, always find the outliners and see how they did it.

childifchaos2• 10 years ago

I think this is extremely important. We all want answers and want to know how to do something and the Internet puts that information at our finger tips, the problem is that it's 99% outright bad advice.

Watching some talks from Elon Musk lately trying to find "the secret" and it's amazing how little secrets they seem to be from people that aren't trying to sell you some kinda info product or brand in the long run.

mesozoic• 10 years ago

Usually it seems the "secret" comes down to be lucky many times in a row. From what I've seen this is many times the only thing that all successful entrepreneurs have in common.

csomar• 10 years ago

There are two issues at play here (completely my opinion):

1. The first is why people follow religion. People look for security even if it's just an illusion. That's why they read and watch these stories.

2. We don't know what the rich people (or successful) exactly did to get there. Maybe they did fraud. Maybe they did tax evasion. Maybe they laundered money. Maybe they ripped some customers or over-charged them. No successful person is going to tell you that especially if it's a black-hat shit.

hitekker2• 10 years ago

Reminds me of:

http://www.businessinsider.com/ben-horowitz-columbia-graduat...

Key quote (paraphrasing)

"Is it that they love doing what they're doing, or that they love being successful?"

[video] Why you shouldn’t trust successful people’s advice

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