Twitter Data used to predict election outcome in Turkey

https://ataspinar.wordpress.com/2015/10/28/4-more-years-of-akp/

by ataspinar • 11 years ago

13 6 11 years ago

ataspinar.wordpress.com

akp123• 11 years ago

Interesting results

na8888ssf• 11 years ago

I would've guessed a lower percentage forthe justice and development party (AKP). I'll keep a watch on your blog, thnx for sharing:)

yigitdemirag• 11 years ago

Sorry for jumping like that before reading your blog post carefully but did you consider the fake user factor on your results? There are tons of accounts on Twitter posting 1-2 exactly the same or 2-3 character altered tweets from an unknown database per week. Those fake accounts mostly support AKP. I believe those are the ones that make your prediction inaccurate.

ataspinar• 11 years ago

Hello yigit, Actually I did consider it. In short; out of the >200.000 users who posted Tweets regarding politics in the period of 1 May to 06 June there were a few dozen users who posted thousands of Tweets instead of only a few (<10). However, because there are only a few dozen users like this in a total set of >200.000 users, their actions do not affect the result much.

Unfortunately I did not have enough time to do a similar analysis on the Twitter data from Oktober. But I hope that the same conditions apply. In any case, I will take your concerns into account and try to do more analysis on the set of users from the dataset of September and Oktober if I have some time today or tomorrow.

bulkan• 11 years ago

I don't believe this will the result. The results of this snap election will be exactly like the last in which AKP won't be able to form government by themselves and a coalition will be required.

yiggitopu• 11 years ago

wow that is very nice predictions, you should be nominated for nobel peace price. wit this we can allow for prediction for world affares

Twitter Data used to predict election outcome in Turkey

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